WASHINGTON – It is not yet a full-blown rivalry, but then again, it was only last year the New York Mets weren’t expected to provide more than token resistance to the Washington Nationals.
We know how that ended up: Buoyed by a powerful young rotation, a July trade for a power hitter and a transcendent postseason from a homegrown second baseman, the Mets startled the National League from 2015’s Opening Day through October, outclassing the Nationals, winning the division and ultimately the pennant.
Tuesday night, the team expected to dominate 2015 and the club that actually did meet up for the first time since their fortunes were reversed, and this initial glance reveals two clubs well-equipped to dominate into the next decade.
The catch is they’ll have to go through each other to do so.
“It will be interesting,” says Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo, “for years to come, to compete against them.”
Tuesday’s game, the first of 19 between the teams this season, sums up why. Starting for the Nationals: Max Scherzer, who struck out a record-tying 20 batters in his last start, and who in his last game at New York’s Citi Field threw a no-hitter against the Mets.
Countering for New York: Noah Syndergaard, the 23-year-old who features both the hardest fastball (97.9 mph) and slider (91.4 mph) among major league starters, according to Fangraphs, and who has struck out 55 batters in his 46 1/3 innings this season.
Batting cleanup for the Nationals: Daniel Murphy, whose record-breaking six consecutive postseason games with a home run powered the Mets to the pennant weeks before he signed a three-year, $37.5 million contract in Washington.
Murphy’s return provides a bit of tabloid fodder, as homegrown stars returning to New York often do. He expressed trepidation at his reception – “I’ll have a better idea after I get it,” he said Sunday – though teammates are already set to defend their quickly popular teammate, who has ingratiated himself beyond his .400 average and five home runs.
“He deserves to get a standing ovation,” says first baseman Ryan Zimmerman. “He basically carried them to the World Series. Fans will probably boo or do something because he should have stayed there, even though I don’t think they really offered him a contract.”
Adds shortstop Danny Espinosa: “I think he deserves a hell of an applause. He played almost seven years there, and did a great job for them for all that time. He’s a very good ballplayer, always has been, and we’re very lucky to have him on our team. Obviously, they have very good pitching, but what he did individually was pretty awesome.”
The long-lasting ramifications of Nationals-Mets, however, goes far beyond Murphy’s reception Tuesday night, or New York fans compelled to cast reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper in the role of villain. Rather, it’s a bedrock of pitching, acquired through various means, both teams will boast for years to come.
Much has been made of the Mets’ young power quartet: Syndergaard, 2014 Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Steven Matz are between 23 and 28 this season and have combined for 75 major league wins even though none have so much as completed three full seasons.
Though Harvey has been hit hard in some starts and Matz missed his Saturday start due to elbow soreness, the Mets rank fourth in the NL with a 3.34 rotation ERA, same as last year’s group that finished with a 3.44 mark.
Perhaps most impressive, the rotation – 42-year-old Bartolo Colon rounds it out – leads the NL in strikeout-to-walk ratio, their 4.18 mark edging the Nationals’ 4.15.
“They’re not just out there pitching with 97 and just trying to throw the ball by you,” says an admiring Scherzer. “Those guys have that 97, but they also have breaking pitches off of that – they have sliders, curveballs and changeups, all of them. It’s unique to see that many pitchers, all have that type of arsenal, all pitching at the same time, all being relatively young.
“It’s difficult, as a young player, to be that polished. All of those guys are that polished.”
The Mets drafted Harvey, deGrom and Matz and traded for Syndergaard in the early stages of rebuilding, while the Nationals’ group is a confluence of fortuitous draft timing (2008 No. 1 pick Stephen Strasburg), deft trades (Joe Ross and Gio Gonzalez) and financial might (Scherzer, whose signing for $215 million made the Nationals such prohibitive 2015 favorites).
Washington’s big bucks struck struck another key blow in this arms race when the club unexpectedly signed Strasburg – eligible for free agency at season’s end – to a seven-year, $175 million extension.
While Strasburg can opt out of his deal after 2019 or 2020, his signing buys the Nationals some rotation certainty even the young Mets lack.
They have Scherzer under contract through 2021, Strasburg potentially through 2023. Ross, emerging as a dependable No. 3 starter, is under club control through 2021. Gonzalez (2018) and Tanner Roark (2019) can walk before then, but Rizzo has consensus top 10 prospect Lucas Giolito lurking in the minors, as well as emerging arms Austin Voth and Reynaldo Lopez, each striking out a batter an inning at Class AAA and AA, respectively.
Rizzo observed the Mets’ methodical stockpiling and saw a nemesis looming, even though his club was doing much of the same.
“That is how long-term contenders are built. They are not going to be one and done,” says Rizzo of the Mets. “We have a good rotation, too, a good feeder system that brings up good power arms.
“We like the fact that we know more or less, what our rotation’s going to look like down the road.”
Indeed, the Mets may face attrition before Washington, as Harvey is eligible for free agency after 2018 and deGrom after 2020.
Those are issues for another year, however. Tuesday night in Queens, Scherzer and Syndergaard will light up radar guns and punch out hitters. And two teams now well aware of the other’s capabilities will finally engage, Washington atop the division at 23-15, the Mets wedged behind them and surprising Philadelphia just 1 ½ games out.
“Absolutely we’re going to be excited to be able to go out there and toe it up against one of the best teams in baseball. We believe we’re one of the best teams in baseball as well,” Mets outfielder Michael Conforto told reporters Sunday. “It’s going to be a great matchup.”
That probably goes for the foreseeable future.
“We have a very healthy respect for the ballclub,” says Rizzo. “They’re at the top of the mountain now. Our job is to knock them off the mountain.”
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