The jockeying to become the next House speaker began even before its current occupant, Wisconsin GOP Rep. Paul Ryan, announced Wednesday that he plans to retire in January.
The maneuvering is playing out inside both the Democratic and Republican conferences — because both parties are also competing for control of the House in the 2018 elections.
The leadership race will not be decided until after the November elections, during a closed-door secret-ballot contest, and the winner won’t take the gavel until January 2019 when the new Congress is sworn in.
But it’s no wonder the leadership battle is already underway, since the speaker’s job is perhaps the most powerful position in Congress and second in line to succeed the president.
So who is in the running?
• The leading contender on the Republican side is Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., the current House majority leader. The 53-year-old McCarthy has rocketed up the congressional ladder, fueled by a mix of personal charm, political savvy, and non-stop work.
McCarthy has run for speaker before — in 2015, after then-House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, announced his retirement — only to drop out in a surprise move just moments before the vote. At the time, hardline House conservatives had expressed misgivings about McCarthy and it became clear that, even if he won a majority of the GOP conference, he would not get the votes needed to win a public roll call on the House floor to certify that election.
"I just think it's best to have a new face," McCarthy told reporters at the time.
Since then, McCarthy has been laying the groundwork for a second speaker’s bid. He’s been raising loads of money for other House Republicans, trying to mend fences with conservatives, and cultivating a close rapport with President Trump.
• Next in line is Louisiana Rep. Steve Scalise, currently the House majority whip, the No. 3 GOP post. The 52-year-old Scalise moved into the national spotlight last summer, after he was nearly killed during a shooting at a congressional baseball practice. He was hospitalized for months but returned to work last fall, with the nation watching his recovery.
Now in his sixth term, Scalise may have more clout with the influential bloc of House conservatives. Before becoming majority whip, Scalise led the powerful Republican Study Committee, the largest faction of conservatives in the GOP conference.
Scalise has said he would not challenge McCarthy for speaker. But he told Politico last month that he might run under the right circumstances.
“I wouldn’t rule it out,” Scalise told Politico. “Obviously, I’ve shown interest in the past at moving up.”
McCarthy and Scalise’s spokesmen declined to comment on t looming speaker’s race Wednesday, and the lawmakers focused their statements Wednesday on Ryan’s accomplishments in the post.
There could be other dark-horse Republican candidates, particularly if conservatives determine they don’t like the leading candidates. But one influential Republican — North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows, chairman of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus — said Wednesday he was not interested in the speaker’s job.
“Leadership has never been on my bucket list,” Meadows told a reporter for MSNBC.
If Republicans lose their House majority — and many saw Ryan's retirement as confirmation of that possibility — the speaker's race will move to the Democratic caucus and it could be even more contentious and crowded.
• Many expect House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., to try to reclaim the speaker's gavel, which she held for two years starting in 2008. But the 78-year-old San Francisco Democrat is a polarizing figure; Republicans have made her their boogeyman in the 2018 elections, and many Democrats think the party needs new leadership.
There's no shortage of other House Democrats with an eye on the speaker's job, starting with her three deputies.
• Rep. Steny Hoyer, a Maryland Democrat, has been Pelosi's No. 2 for 15 years, so he would be the natural successor by seniority. And Hoyer has a loyal following within the Democratic caucus, thanks to years of work getting lawmakers plum committee assignments and votes on legislation. But as a 78-year-old from the East Coast, Hoyer may not represent the change in leadership that Democrats are looking for.
• South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn is the No. 3 Democrat in the House. And as a southerner and the highest ranking African-American in Congress, he could help the party build its strength as Democrats seek to make inroads in traditionally GOP territory in part by increasing turnout among black voters. But Clyburn is also in his late 70s, and he's been in Congress for more than two decades.
• Rep. Joseph Crowley, a New Yorker who chairs the Democratic caucus, has also been positioning himself as a possible Pelosi successor. Like the other contenders, Crowley has been raising money for his party and campaigning for Democratic challengers across the country. At 56, Crowley could satisfy the demand for a younger leader, even though the 10-term Democrat is not exactly a fresh face in Congress.
• As with the GOP field, lesser-known Democrats contenders could emerge. Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, for example, mounted a long-shot challenge to Pelosi after the 2016 elections. Ryan has continued to press his argument that Democrats need to reconnect with blue-collar middle America and that electing a Midwesterner to the speaker's post would help in that effort.
