The best reliever should pitch in the toughest spots, right? It's not complex wisdom, just a simple idea to get the best results.
The moment St. Louis Cardinals phenom Jordan Hicks surprisingly made the team out of spring training and became a viable weapon out of the bullpen for the team, there has been concern over the 21 year old's innings. What is the cost of having too much of a good thing, anyway?
According to Baseball Reference, Hicks is on pace for 76 innings pitched and 68 outings, which ventures him into Kevin Siegrist and Trevor Rosenthal 2015 land of discomfort, which leads to the worrisome fans rummaging over his innings load. It's not a simple matter of pitches thrown though, so let's go to an exact situation.
Last night against the Philadelphia Phillies, the Cardinals miraculously fought back from an early 4-0 deficit to take the lead in extra innings. When the Cardinals needed three more outs and Bud Norris had already been used to preserve a tie game, Matt Bowman was summoned instead of Hicks.
This was a bad idea. Some will say he warmed up three times in three days and pitched in back-to-back days, but they need to look closer. Hicks threw a combination of 23 pitches in those outings, with his previous one coming on June 12. He wasn't overworked and the Cardinals direly needed a win last night to build a winning streak and move out of panic-infused waters. Hicks was warm and ready.
You see, in the toughest spots, you need the best arm in the bullpen, ideally. In other words, not Matt Bowman. The wiffle ball tossing righty isn't as bad as some make him out to be (including yours truly), but he's not a stopper of any kind-and he never was to begin with. Mike Matheny keeps believing he is, so fans are treated to nasty sights like last night's debacle.
Bowman put runners on and would eventually allow a game-winning two-run double, giving the Phillies a 6-5 loss that flattened the Cardinals' hopes and deflated the world of Cardinals Twitter. Matheny decided to bring a dull knife to a gun fight and lost.
Hicks was the right call. Before Jason Heyward caught lightning and sent one of the kid's offerings into the right field seats on Saturday night, there was little to none hard contact off Hicks. He's struggled with walks in May and early June, but hitters simply can't put the sweet spot of the barrel on his pitches. If he pitches last night, the Cardinals have a 95% chance of winning that game. No, I didn't get that Baseball Savant or Stata-Launch-Angle-Prospectus, it's common sense.
But wait, there have been reports that Hicks gets to the ballpark and tells the coaching staff how he's feeling that particular game. Perhaps he came into the ballpark last night and said he wasn't feeling up to it. First, I won't believe that until I hear it from his mouth. Second, I don't care if the kid says he can't go. He's a big leaguer and should be ready to close down a big game. If he only threw 23 pitches in the past six days with one of them traveling nearly 400 feet, I bet Hicks was dying to get back out there and close a tight game down. Again, being practical here.
Before you scream KEVIN SIEGRIST at me, remember Hicks has started in the minor leagues for the past two seasons. Last year, he threw 105 innings and 60.2 the year before. Minor league competition is a different beast, but usage counts all the same. Hicks isn't a guy who has worked out of the pen before his time in St. Louis. He was training as a starter until he got to Busch Stadium and saw a "help wanted" sign behind right field. He can handle it.
He's not showing any signs of breaking down. In the month of June, Hicks has a 1.17 ERA and 0.783 WHIP. The strikeouts to walks ratio is even more impressive this month. Let's review:
April: 7 K/ 12 BB
May: 9 K/ 6 BB
June: 13 K/ 2 BB
What's changed? The kid has incorporated a slider to his deadly mix of four-seam fastball and sinker, which run around 100 mph. The slider runs in around 86 mph, which is just unfair to hitters. They are gearing up for a triple digit heater that moves and then the baseball just slides away from their bat like it just stole a television. The kid isn't losing effectiveness, so stop worrying about him.
Right now, the Cardinals need him. Sure, it would be lovely if some others in the pen would do their job and perform-but the group has been a mixed bag so far this season with plenty of injuries hindering the output. There's no time to set Hicks aside and try some other options when the Cardinals are hanging out in third place. Go with what you know in a time of need.
All of this harks back to one guy: Matheny. He needs to use Hicks wisely. Stop throwing the kid out there in 6-1 games or games with a deficit going either way north of two runs. Save Hicks for the toughest spots, because he's your best pitcher. If Matheny is going to ever learn how to manage a bullpen-it's year #7 after all-it needs to start with Hicks and knowing when to apply his skills. Hitters aren't losing against him due to sheer luck of pitches landing in a certain space; they fail because he is freakishly good.
The Cardinals had a chance to steal a game on Monday, but instead they let it all collapse. Maybe it was due to Hicks saying he wasn't up for it, but I highly doubt that. Look at him on the mound. It's all business and no sad tears about usage.
If the Cardinals are to find any salvation this year, they need to employ young guns like Hicks properly. Don't worry about usage or innings. Every arm is different and Jordan is prepared for this.
Next time, say no to Bowman and go with the best. Baseball games are won that way.
