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Buffa: 5 burning questions about the Cardinals

The Cardinals have a chance to go from 47-46 to the playoffs. Only they can mess it up from here.
Jason Getz-USA TODAY SPORTS

Fall is getting close, and that means one thing for baseball fans: playoff baseball is almost here.

For St. Louis Cardinals fans, the question of whether or not their October presale acquisition will be refunded or not sits on their minds. With nine games remaining in the 2018 season, will the Cardinals make the playoffs? Conundrums like that come with a few questions, and I am here to answer a few, maybe six, of the burning questions that are melting minds in the Lou.

As Cardinal Nation's view of the Los Angeles Dodgers switches from foe to friend, let's talk about the Birds.

Burning Question: Who broke Matt Carpenter?

No one. The issues that surround the breakdown of Carpenter in September are supported by a myriad of reasons that will require large amounts of beer, and I am talking about an IPA, not some Bud Light tap water.

There's the hit-by-pitch on the hand weeks ago that was laughed off when Carpenter proved to the coaching staff and his teammates that he could open a can of his magic salsa. Did the hand contusion withdraw all the power from Carpenter's stick? It sure didn't help Paul DeJong for a while there.

Is it simply bad habits? Carpenter's overall percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone sits at an impressive 21.4%, with the league average hanging around 30%. It his refusal to swing at times that is handicapping him. There's more arguing with the umpires over a close pitch or just too much taking. Now, to be fair, the takes can result in walks, which support Carpenter's highly impressive on-base percentage that still sits closer to 40%. He pinch-hit on Wednesday afternoon due to his ability to draw a walk. The problem is Carpenter isn't swinging as often as he once was.

Anybody with half of an analytical brain knew Carpenter wasn't going to keep hitting at an astronomical pace. It was only a matter of time before he came back down. He would have 45 home runs and 75 doubles before the middle of September, causing many to question not whether he was taking steroids, but also if he was really human?

The MVP talks are gone, but the Cardinals need Carpenter to plug back into reality, whether it's salsa-enabled virtual reality or some blend of previous seasons. He still leads the National League in home runs and carries a fWAR of 4.9. Mash, draw walks, or simply swing away. The team's return to Earth this month has coincided with Carpenter's human frailty at the plate. The team goes where his bat goes. There's no time for rest, so he may be thrown back into the wolf's den. He hasn't homered in three weeks and needs a boost of any kind. Can Lance Lynn throw him a pitch or two?

What do I think is wrong? The hand. He can deny it, but when your slugging percentage holds firm around .600 for four months and it suddenly drops to .203 this month, something is gone. Refusal to swing? Maybe it hurts too much.

Burning Question: What happened to Jose Martinez?

Other than swinging at everything thrown near home plate, nothing much. On the surface, Martinez is still collecting hits. He has seven hits in his last 24 at-bats, including back-to-back two hit games against Atlanta this week. Martinez remains the rare Cardinal with a .300 batting average and carrying overall strong hitting statistics.

The swings outside the zone fall closer to the league average of 30% though. He seems to make up his mind before the pitch is thrown. Since he hits in the middle of the order, the bases have often been loaded with Martinez at the plate. Big moments bring a large scope, and the results from Martinez with the bases jammed are a letdown. He's 0-11 in the spot, striking out three times or hitting into an easy out. It wouldn't be a big deal if it hadn't happened several times lately in close games.

The patience at the plate was one of Martinez's signature traits and the guiding force behind his great start. He could wait for his pitch and hit it anywhere. Now, he offers at so much, you'd think the video was showing the last three seasons of Albert Pujols in Los Angeles. You would think he had a blindfold on his head swinging at a pinata.

Overall, he's hitting .233 in September with a similar slugging percentage. He did this in July and bounced back last month, so we will see. He's got five hits in his last three games, but the discipline must return.

Burning Question: Is Carlos Martinez's move to the bullpen temporary?

Yes, this is a legit conversation that I see every day on Twitter, which is far from the Supreme Court of Baseball Legislation, but still the pool of thought a writer can draw from.

The short and long answer is no. That's it. This was a move engineered to trigger a reboot in Martinez's pregame discipline methods of showing up on time and being astute with the duties of a starting pitcher and a way to save his body from falling apart. After a couple injuries and returns that felt rushed, the bullpen made sense. It helps that he's a lightning rod down there, stinging teams with the sinker and movement. He can amp up for one inning instead of six. It fits what the Cardinals need right now, and what they need from Martinez in order for both parties to resume the expectations in 2019.

It works...for now.

Burning Question: Why does Brett Cecil get into close games?

While I could tell you Mike Matheny is running around in Mike Shildt's body late in games, that wouldn't hold outside a comedy forum. Cecil makes a lot of money, but at this point in the season, that shouldn't matter. Winning should dominate the agenda, and Cecil doesn't help in that department. The problem is Tyler Lyons went missing in action this year, going from a deadly source in 2017 to nearly departed this season.

With Lyons down and other options looking flat, Cecil is the lefty down there who Shildt is trying to get a rise out of. The former Blue Jay shows flashes of the guy who carried a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio last season, but it's more like a flashlight blinking in a tunnel before totally going out.

Cecil currently has 19 strikeouts and 24 walks on the season, carrying a WHIP near 2.00, which is very bad for a reliever. The ERA is over 6.00, and he isn't getting any better. At this point, Cecil shouldn't be allowed to enter a game where the deficit is less than four runs. He's a mop-up artist. Forget the matchup, and go with a different pitcher. All Cecil does is blow things up. This will be the contract that the Cardinals eat this winter, adding to their plate of Leake potatoes and Hollandaise eggs.

Burning Question: Why isn't Tyler O'Neill starting more often?

He strikes out a lot. I mean, A LOT! If you thought Randal Grichuk was bad, get a load of Mr. Canada Jr. He strikes out 45% of the time, and that's just not what the Cardinals need. O'Neill has the eight home runs, electric power, and sheer tenacity to run over any player or wall to catch a baseball...but he has no plate discipline. When he walks, it seems like an accident. He is a pinch-hitting threat who could get time if a player gets hurt. I seeing the kid let it rip and hope he can acquire some hesitation in the future, but right now, he doesn't need four at-bats in a game.

Do I like Yairo Munoz impersonating the bad softball player overthrowing the cutoff guy? No. Do I like seeing Cafe Jr. swing at a pitch meant for the dugout? No. They are better options overall than O'Neill.

Burning Question: If the Cardinals make the wildcard game, who starts?

While I voted Miles Mikolas last week, I have to give in and suggest Jack Flaherty. When he's on, the other team should cash in their chips early. If he's at 75%, there's a good chance the Cardinals can still win. The kid is electric at the age of 22. He's Jordan Hicks with a few more floors in the building. Pure dynamite.

The baseball card AARP squad will point to an 8-8 record, and they need a stiff drink and a tiny hammer to the head. Look, Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young Award with a .500 record, so get over it. The pitcher win stat is a bad way to judge a pitcher. How about the 174 strikeouts in 143 innings? The .195 batting average against and the 1.08 WHIP are juicy. The kid has anger on the mound, but he carries plenty of poise. He's the Christmas present that arrived on your doorstep in April.

You start with him, follow with Mikolas, and go from there. Youth is the key ingredient moving forward, so ride it out.

There are other things. What is Yadier Molina drinking to stay young? Will Jedd Gyorko ever get back to his terror-inducing days from the past two years? Can Carson Kelly hit a home run? Will Jordan Hicks become even more filthy with age? Other topics for another day. I am out of ammo and need to go drive.

The Cardinals have a chance to go from 47-46 to the playoffs. Only they can mess it up from here. The next 10 days will be a fun, exhausting, and thrilling ride.

If you have a question that needs answering, send it to my email, buffa82@gmail.com. Or find me on Twitter @buffa82.

Until next time, thanks for reading.

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