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Buffa: Matt Carpenter is better than Eric Hosmer

Hosmer wouldn't make the Cardinals a better team in 2018. His advantages over Carpenter just aren't that plentiful. 
Sep 20, 2017; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cardinals first baseman Matt Carpenter rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Cincinnati Reds during the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

As Giancarlo Stanton claims his first MVP award and the heat around his name swirls on the hot stove, let's turn our attention away from who we'd like to see wear the Cardinals uniform to who we don't need to wear the uniform.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Cardinals don't need Eric Hosmer. They already have a guy just like him in Matt Carpenter-and guess what else: Carpenter is better and more consistent. Allow me to explain.

Even though the Cardinals stated this week that Carpenter may serve a super utility role for the team in 2018, I still believe he will get most of the reps at first base. I believe this for a few reasons:

  • It's the one position where he costs the team the least defensively. Basically, he's not good at second or third base.
  • Jedd Gyorko can play a great third base. That is, if Josh Donaldson isn't there.
  • With Gyorko and Kolten Wong in red (tentatively speaking), there's no room for Carpenter there.

So, Carpenter is the guy at first base in 2018, and Hosmer doesn't present much an upgrade. Let's break this down by individual abilities.

Starting with Defense

Please hold your "Hosmer won a gold glove though" chants as I inform you about something cool called sabermetrics. I'm not an expert by any means, but Fangraphs paints a pretty clear picture of defensive skills.

While Hosmer fielded all the grounders and was able to step on first properly, he didn't save the Kansas Royals many runs. Hosmer cost the Royals seven runs in the field in 2017, showing average range at best at the corner spot. Carpenter is no stalwart at first, but he actually saved the Cardinals a run last year. Carpenter's -0.6 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) was only slightly worse than Hosmer's -0.3 mark. Carpenter posted a .993 fielding percentage, while Hosmer's percentage was .997. Hosmer made four errors and Carpenter committed seven.

The person deciding gold gloves these days is drunk, because the Indians' Carlos Santana deserved the gold glove over Hosmer, but the point is clear. There isn't that much difference between the two men at first base. If you look at advanced sabermetrics or regular fielding stats, they aren't far off.

Offense

While Hosmer enjoyed a career year in 2017, cranking 25 home runs and posting an .882 OPS, Carpenter wasn't that bad himself, hitting 23 home runs and matching Hosmer in doubles while playing in 17 less games. Carpenter's .835 OPS was actually low compared to his last four seasons, where he regularly finished near .900.

Please don't direct me to Hosmer's RBI total, which is a stat built on your place in the order, essentially right time/right place courtesy. Carpenter's preferred spot is leadoff, and he still manages to average 76 RBI per season.

Let's look at consistency. Over the past five seasons, Carpenter's OPS has finished over .830. Hosmer has only notched the mark twice in his past five seasons. Carpenter works over a pitcher, slugs a decent amount, and is a consistent force for the Cardinals. He's had a few "career years".

Overall

Let's take the argument to WAR, aka wins above replacement via Fangraphs. Over the past three seasons, Carpenter's cumulative WAR is 11.4. Hosmer's mark is 7.5. Carpenter will win you more games than Hosmer.

Salary

In 2018, Carpenter will make 13.7 million dollars. If Scott Boras gets his way, Hosmer will make somewhere within the 18-20 million dollar range annually for the next 5-6 seasons. Carpenter's 2.9 WAR in a down year only sat a bit over one win less than Hosmer's "career" year. Come on.

Age

Hosmer wins this one, sitting at 28 years old as of last month. Carpenter will turn 32 shortly after Thanksgiving, with 30.4 million dollars guaranteed left on his contract, which runs through 2019 with an option for 2020. While Carpenter is older, he is still producing good returns and won't handicap the team.

It isn't that Hosmer is a bad player; he's quite the opposite. He's a fine producer and according to Kansas City rumblings, a good leader. Maybe he could teach Carpenter a few things about leadership, but I don't think a few good speeches is worth a contract covering up to six years and heading north of 120 million. Hosmer wouldn't make the Cardinals a better team in 2018. His advantages over Carpenter just aren't that plentiful.

In 2016, Hosmer's WAR was -0.1. What if he comes to St. Louis, comes back to Earth, and produces that mark as he cashes a paycheck of 20 million Washingtons. No thanks.

Hosmer is like a Christian Yelich addition, only more expensive. Nice and all, but not what the Cardinals need. The Cardinals need a world changer. That man's name is Giancarlo.

When you weigh the stats, both old school and modern aged, Matt Carpenter is better than or at least as good as Eric Hosmer. Let him return to Kansas City. The Cardinals are all set over there.

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