As the Giancarlo Stanton sweepstakes play out like a 1980's romantic comedy, it's important to remember that the St. Louis Cardinals don't just need home runs to climb back into the National League Central race; they are in big need of innings from the rotation. I am going to tell you why re-signing Lance Lynn is a wise decision, but first, let's look at the big picture.
With all the conversations about Stanton and J.D. Martinez changing the lineup, their efforts may go to waste if the starting pitchers don't hold the fort for six to seven innings. The electric bullpen arm won't matter if the starter can't get the game to them in one piece. Right now, the Cardinals are pretty bare in the rotation after one big scary arm named Carlos Martinez.
The 2018 regular season starts in 4.5 months, on the road against the New York Mets. As of right now, the Cardinals rotation lists as follows: Martinez, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright, and Luke Weaver.
That's one guy with 205 innings pitched in 2017 and every other arm in that rotation with 170 innings pitched or less last year. In a best case scenario played out in reality, Wacha delivered 165 innings. Wainwright burned out before he could offer even 125 innings. Weaver offered less than 140 innings during time split between Memphis and St. Louis.
Ladies and gents, that just won't cut it in 2018. Alex Reyes isn't going to be rotation ready for a few months and I won't place chis on Jack Flaherty or Dakota Hudson just yet. The team to seemingly allergic to contract talks with Lance Lynn, who will wear a different uniform in 2018 after the Cardinals tendered him a qualifying offer last week. He's gone, and that takes away another 180 inning or more arm.
Love or hate Mike Leake (I was unpacking my stuff in the uneasy apartment as 2017 advanced), but he gave you 180 innings on average about every year where he was healthy. A normal Wainwright would offset the loss of Leake, but #50 isn't anywhere near assured these days.
Let's me offer a worst case scenario before we get into free agents. What if Martinez gets hurt? The rotation would then look downright scary, and not in a cool fantasy baseball matchup sort of way. I am talking about a trainwreck, and Mike Matheny won't churn diamonds from a lackluster rotation. He's no Tony La Russa in 2002 or 2006. That's like asking a second unit director to resemble Steven Spielberg.
As much as they need a closer and big bat, the Cards need innings, but where are they going to find them? Here's a few free agent arms to gander upon as cup of coffee #2 goes down the drain.
The High End Offerings
Lynn, RHP: Finely trimmed facial hair, lots of fastballs, old school swagger, great postgamers
While it's unlikely to happen, the Cardinals need Lynn more than he needs them. When healthy, the man is a 190 inning horse who gives the team a reliable #3 guy in their rotation while moonlighting as a #2 at times. He's a guy with a career 3.62 FIP. Which means he can get outs without a gold glove defense and strikes a lot of dudes out. Lynn averages 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings and doesn't offer a lot of home runs. Turning 31 in May, Lynn will command 4-5 years at 16-18 million per season. If you inserted Lynn's horsepower into the 2018 rotation, things would look less scary.
Jake Arrieta, RHP: Strong beard work, stiff mound movements, lots of muscle, works out in sleep
The former Cub looked very human in 2017, pitching just 168 innings and posting a 4.16 FIP with 14 wild pitches. The 2015 Cy Young Award winner was very hittable and not as dominant as recent seasons, suggesting an imminent decline. While he still struck out a lot of batters and kept his team in most games, Arrieta's WHIP rose and he wasn't as sharp. He's also 32 years old in March, so investing in him long term is about as smart as betting Louis C.K. gets another television series. He had lights out stuff for three seasons, but can he get it back? No thanks on any contract over four years and over 18 million. I'd take Lynn over Arrieta.
Yu Darvish, RHP: Sophisticated facial hair, strikeout happy, late arrival, ace caliber
If I'm being honest, a quick scan at Darvish's baseball reference page doesn't blow my eyebrows off, but if you look closer, there's enormous potential. In work split between Texas and Los Angeles last year, Darvish struck out 209 batters in under 187 innings of work last season. He's produced a 5.8 and 4.0 WAR in his young MLB career, working around Tommy John surgery in 2015. A five time All Star, Darvish is 31 years old, but would slot in behind Martinez in the Cards rotation, giving the Birds two legit difference makers in a short series. He's the cream of the crop for the free agent starting pitching class.
Table Scraps
Jeremy Hellickson isn't as good as Leake, offering a high salary for an ERA that could be as low as 3.10 or as high as 5.60. He's all over the board to place him over a rookie. Matt Garza and Ricky Nalasco are as inviting as packaged lunch meat, offering little to rotations but unpleasant promises. Jason Vargas doesn't produce much excitement, and the Cards already spent too many rounds on the Jaime Garcia merry-go-round.
Michael Pineda is healing from Tommy John surgery, but didn't fare too bad in the AL East, but wouldn't be a good bet at the moment. Andrew Cashner put together fine if not remarkable seasons in San Diego before impressing in Texas last year, and he's topped 160 innings three times in his career. Overall, he's another meh performer.
The End Game
For the Cardinals and free agency, a Darvish type dive would be swell, but the smarter play would be to retain Lynn and stick with what you know. I've never quite understood the disconnect between the Cardinals and Lynn's camp with contract talks, especially due to how efficient he has been for the Birds.
Arrieta isn't much better at this point in his career and Darvish will cost rich cash, so opening up phone lines with Lynn wouldn't be a bad idea. As unlikely as it is, the idea still balances well. He's a proven innings eater who the Cardinals can rely on to bridge the gap between the present and the future. Since they refused to trade him this past July to bolster the roster, why not bring him back?
If not free agency, the Cards need to find starters to fill the innings gap in their rotation via trade. After Martinez, no one in their current rotation can even promise 180 innings in 2018. That's a problem that Stanton or Martinez can't fix, unless they learn to pitch. Let's not force Matheny to get ultra crafty in his rotation choices.
While Reyes, Weaver, Hudson, Flaherty, and Jordan Hicks all resemble potential forces, they are anything but assured producers right now. The Cards need a proven 200 arm to slot behind Martinez, because right now, they do not have a legit #2. If you can't find a legit #2, you bring in reliable inning eaters like Lynn.
And you don't have to stop at Lynn. The Cardinals could flip one of their infielders for another starter. More is better than what they currently have.
The meetings between general managers have begun, but there haven't been any deals just yet. Just wait. Michael Girsch and John Mozeliak have work to do this winter, and that doesn't just include lineup resurgence.
In order to climb back into the division race that saw them finish a combined 26 games out of first place the past two years, the Cardinals need rotation stability. Signing Lance Lynn would be a great start to that process.
With Lynn, you get a guaranteed 10-12 wins, lots of strikeouts, 190 innings, and a FIP mark that teams can respect and revere. Sure, signing a guy tipping into his 30's carries risk. but that risk sits with 98 percent of the free agent arms out there.
He never got an official goodbye moment in front of the crowd at Busch Stadium, so there's room for a sequel between these two parties.
What do you think about the team? Tell me at buffa82@gmail.com or on Twitter @buffa82. Thanks.
