By Jon Ince, from Cardsblog.com
The best bet to make an impact in the division race would be to change the way the Cardinals use the bullpen. There is an increasing movement to remove a starter after facing 18 batters because pitchers have much higher ERA’s the third time through an order.
On paper, Adam Wainwright’s 5.11 ERA last year looks awful, but if you remove his 1 2/3 inning start where he gave up 9 ER to the Baltimore Orioles, his ERA the first two times though the order is 3.36.
If we could just have him (and every other Cardinal starter but Carlos Martinez) face 18 batters a game, a little over 4 innings on average, ERA's would be fantastic. But then how do the Cardinals keep pitching another 5 innings?
Here's how: Use Alex Reyes and Tyler Lyon’s as 2 inning relievers.
The Cardinals have two "relievers" in Alex Reyes and Tyler Lyons who are exceptional pitchers with histories of starting. Utilizing Reyes like this allows him to have a controlled number of innings while still getting exposure to MLB batters.
Additionally, the Cardinals are positioned perfectly for this to work based on their starting pitchers. Wacha, Mikolas, and Weaver are all pitchers who would benefit either in terms of staying healthy or in term of getting acclimated to MLB batters.
The Cardinal Bullpen will likely look like this: Luke Gregerson, Dominic Leone, Brett Cecil, Sam Tuivailala, John Brebbia, Bud Norris, Tyler Lyons, and Alex Reyes
I would love to include Sherriff because he is exceptional against lefties (.170 average allowed by lefties his last two years in the minors) and because the Cardinals starting rotation is entirely right handed, the opposing team lineup would probably be lefty loaded. However, the recent signing of Norris likely pushes Sherriff back to AAA.
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Let’s imagine that the Cardinals did implement a bullpen strategy that had the starters last only 18 batters. How would that the average runs allowed compare to last year’s?
First let’s look at how each starter’s ERA would change:
Carlos Martinez: in 2017 Martinez averaged 6.4 innings with a 3.64 ERA and since he is not capped at four innings we’ll make the math simple and have him average six innings a game with his 3.64 ERA.
Adam Wainwright: as mentioned above we’ll use a 3.36 ERA for his first two times though the order.
Michael Wacha: in 2017 his ERA the first two times through the order was 3.76
Luke Weaver: His sample size as a starter is so small that we’ll use his steamer projected ERA of 3.74.
Miles Mikolas: Since he hasn’t pitched in the MLB since 2014, we’ll use his steamer projection of a 4.12 ERA
* Ideally having Weaver and Mikolas go only 4 innings would decrease the projected ERA's, but we’ll just use what steamers provided.
Here are last year’s ERA’s for the Bullpen:
Gregerson: 4.57
Leone: 2.56
Cecil: 3.88
Tuivailala: 2.55
Brebbia: 2.44
Norris: 4.21
Lyons: 2.83
Reyes: 1.57 (his 2016 ERA as a starter and reliever)
Let’s now see how this breaks down day by day
Pitcher - innings pitched - Avg. runs allowed
Day 1:
Martinez - 6 - 2.43
Cecil - 1 - 0.43
Leone - 1 - 0.28
Gregerson - 1 - 0.51
= 3.65 Runs allowed per game
Day 2
Wainwright - 4 - 1.49
Lyons - 2 - 0.63
Cecil - 1 - 0.43
Leone - 1 - 0.28
Gregerson - 1 - 0.51
= 3.34 Runs allowed per game
Day 3
Wacha - 4 - 1.67
Reyes - 2 - 0.17
Norris - 1 - 0.47
Brebbia - 1 - 0.27
Tuivailala - 1 - 0.28
= 2.86 Runs allowed per game
Day 4
Weaver - 4 - 1.66
Lyons - 2 - 0.63
Cecil - 1 - 0.43
Leone - 1 - 0.28
Gregerson - 1 - 0.51
= 3.51 Runs allowed per game
Day 5
Mikolas - 4 - 1.83
Reyes - 2 - 0.17
Norris - 1 - 0.43
Brebbia - 1 - 0.27
Tuivailala - 1 - 0.28
= 3.02 Runs allowed per game
Using a modern bullpen approach leads to a total average of 3.28 runs allowed per game. Last year the Cardinals allowed 4.01 runs per game.
This, of course, is a simplistic model because it does not consider opponents, extra innings, or injuries. However, it is not too far off from reality and gives bullpen arms plenty of rest. The decrease in runs allowed is best understood when we see that Wainwright’s and Wacha’s ERA the third time through the order was 7.62 and 5.66, respectively.
Starters, under this bullpen plan, would have the opportunity to pitch past 18 batters if they have allowed 0 runs or have allowed 1 run but are otherwise dominating. This would require a manager who his very adept at managing his pitchers. Hopefully the addition of Mike Maddux can help the Cardinals make these decisions.
In order to make this more than a one-sided debate, let’s examine the potential drawbacks of using a bullpen like this:
- Big free agent pitchers wouldn’t want to sign in St.Louis. When we consider that the Cardinals haven’t signed a top free agent pitcher in a while, this doesn’t seem too big a drawback. If the Cardinals were motivated to sign an expensive pitcher, they could surely offer him the opportunity to pitch beyond 4 innings. However, the Cardinals are known for producing pitchers so signing a big pitcher in the near future seems unlikely.
- Extra-inning games could be problematic due to not having rested arms in the bullpen. This is a valid concern, but barring a game longer than 11 innings, the bullpen should be able to rebound quickly. Additionally, MLB has added 4 extra rest days for the 2018 season in light of the increased bullpen use
- Pitchers would be unwilling or unhappy to pitch only 4 innings. This is the problem that could derail the whole idea. Starting pitchers never step onto the mound thinking about getting through just 4 innings, and pitchers like Wainwright seem unlikely to change their approaches. However, the average length of a start is the lowest it has ever been and continues to decrease. This strategy is already used in playoff baseball and the integration to regular season ball could occur in the next handful of years
Although using a bullpen the way we’ve described here is a large shift from the current state of pitching, it could be a way for the Cardinals’ pitching staff to compete with the Cubs. With no large signing or trade on the horizon for the Redbirds, this could be how competition heats up in the National League Central.
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