By Jack Stephens, from Cardsblog.com
With pitchers and catchers having just reported for Spring Training, it makes sense that the Cardinals rotation is at the top of the list in terms of pressing 2018 questions. Especially with the recent signing of Yu Darvish by the Cubs, this subject has become even more intriguing.
Perhaps nothing is more intriguing within this topic then the 5th spot of the Cards rotation, a spot that will attract many worthy competitors. Essentially, the three pitchers I see to be in contention are the following: Alex Reyes, Adam Wainwright, and Jack Flaherty. Among these names, each is an interesting storyline, so I will briefly cover the first two names prior to diving into Flaherty.
Reyes is (and has been seen as) the Cardinals "ace of the future." I am certainly in this camp, and for this very reason, I do not expect much out of the youngster in 2018. With his upside, the Cardinals should be extremely cautious with his return, limiting his innings and monitoring him closely. Put simply, he needs time. This is ok.
Moving on to Wainwright, the situation is a little more tricky. With some calling for a move to the bullpen and others calling for complete removal from the staff, the Cardinals are in a bind. He is clearly less talented (at this point) than both Flaherty and Reyes, but he's a veteran, and a decorated one at that.
While I understand the aforementioned desires from Cardinals fans, Wainwright has earned this position through success and leadership. The Cardinals run a high-class organization (or so we like to think), and for this reason, he will get his shot. On the bright side, Wainwright will be a leader and a nice mentor in the Spring, working closely with Flaherty, Weaver, Gomber, et cetera.
Now moving on to the main subject of the article: what to expect from the highly coveted Flaherty? Receiving high praise from several periodicals in their prospect rankings, many outsiders would expect him to be in the rotation. As has been demonstrated, however, the situation is just not that simple.
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The best bet to make an impact in the division race would be to change the way the Cardinals use the bullpen. There is an increasing movement to remove a starter after facing 18 batters because pitchers have much higher ERA's the third time through an order.
Before moving to predictions, let's briefly look at Flaherty's body of work in 2017. He made 15 starts in AAA Memphis, 10 starts in AA Springfield, and 5 starts in the bigs. He was 7-2 in both double and triple, pitching as a maturing first-rounder should. He looked polished, powerful, and in control. Upon debuting in the MLB, however, he was knocked back down to earth (a tad). With a couple rough outings, my takeaway was clear; give him some more time.
Moving somewhat directly with "what to expect," I think the Cardinals should begin Flaherty in AAA. It makes sense to handle him like Luke Weaver, giving him more time in AAA followed by a late season call up to the bigs. As I will now lay out, it seems to be the best move for all involved, speaking particularly of Flaherty and Wainwright.
If the Cardinals go with this move, they will allow themselves time to assess Wainwright's status, along with giving Jack Flaherty more time to polish and gain confidence. If Wainwright does not seem to be worthy, its an easy move; Flaherty up, and Wainwright to the pen. If Waino pitches well, the 22 year old gets a little more time, one more solid year in AAA before (hopefully) an illustrious career in St. Louis.
With all this being said, we must let Spring Training do the talking. Especially with newly crowned pitching coach Mike Maddux looking to set the tone with his guys, those who perform will get their shot. If Flaherty looks like a mature, big league player, he will have earned it in the Spring. If Waino looks like a kid again, it will be proven through innings in Florida.
We can sit here and speculate all we want, but ultimately, Spring Training is a proving grounds, and it is there for a reason. Personally, I am looking forward to the storyline, the competition, and all that comes along with it. You should feel the same way.
One last IF. IF Flaherty seems to have regressed, please keep his age in mind. Yes, he was a first-round pick, I get it. At the same time, however, he is 22. Adversity should be a tool for improvement and maturation; for this reason, it should be welcomed (relatively speaking). I'm rooting for Jack Flaherty as much as the next fan, but if he struggles, don't panic - he has time.
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