Awards don't always play out the way viewers might expect, so USA TODAY's Brian Truitt predicts who will win and who should win in top movie categories at the 73rd Golden Globe Awards (NBC, Sunday, 8 p.m. ET/5 PT).
Who will win a Golden Globe — and who should?
DRAMA
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Will win/should win: Spotlight
There is clear competition for the Oscar best picture front-runner, from sprawling epicRevenant to artful action movie Mad Max to the sumptuously 1950s Carol. However, director Tom McCarthy's look at The Boston Globe's exposé of the Catholic Churchabuse cover-up is an amazingly crafted affair, so expect the journalism drama to continue its awards season run here in a big way.
Comedy or musical
The Big Short
Joy
The Martian
Spy
Trainwreck
Will win: The Big Short
Should win: The Martian
Adam McKay's Big Short has what it needs to win: noteworthy efforts from A-listersChristian Bale, Steve Carell and Brad Pitt, plus enough laughs for the sharp financial disaster film to be considered a comedy. Don't discount Matt Damon's one-liners asThe Martian's astronaut stuck in space, though. While more drama than not, directorRidley Scott's effort is light years more deserving than the rest in this field.
Leonardo DiCaprio stars as frontiersman Hugh Glass in 'The Revenant.' (Photo: Kimberley French)
Actor, drama
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Will Smith, Concussion
Will win/should win: DiCaprio
The "Get Leo his first Oscar!" train is rolling and this is just another stop for the actor, who does some of his best work ever as hard-to-kill, bears-be-damned frontiersmanHugh Glass. His win will look even more impressive against a good field, with last year's winner Redmayne coming back with an arguably better performance in Danish Girl and Fassbender nailing the iconically eccentric Jobs.
After escaping the 'Room' where they've been held captive, Ma (Brie Larson) and Jack (Jacob Tremblay) flip through her belongings in her childhood home. (Photo: George Kraychyk)
Actress, drama
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Rooney Mara, Carol
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Will win: Larson
Should win: Ronan
There's no bad pick in this bunch, the Globes' most competitive category. Vikander and Mara would have been better off in supporting actress, where they'll likely land at the Oscars. Blanchett will be going for her fourth Globe win, though it's probably Larson's to lose as the embattled single mom of Room. Yet Ronan is simply fantastic as an immigrant torn between her Irish home and a new life in America.
Matt Damon stars in 'The Martian.' (Photo: 20th Century Fox)
Actor, comedy or musical
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Matt Damon, The Martian
Al Pacino, Danny Collins
Mark Ruffalo, Infinitely Polar Bear
Will win/should win: Damon
Bale and Carell cancel each other out as Big Short's most colorful money men. Look for The Martian's talented star to blast off for his first Globe win as an actor (Damon and Ben Affleck snagged screenplay honors in 1998 for Good Will Hunting), thanks to his sheer charm, likability and ability to grow space potatoes as "super-botanist" Mark Watney.
Jennifer Lawrence stars in 'Joy.' (Photo: 20th Century Fox)
Actress, comedy or musical
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Melissa McCarthy, Spy
Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Maggie Smith, The Lady In the Van
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Will win/should win: Lawrence
If we're talking pure comedy, McCarthy and Schumer both are good for many laughs as an accidental superspy and a trainwreck of a party girl respectively. Lawrence is a favorite of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association — she has been honored twice previously for Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle — but the Joy star will hoist this year's trophy for her all-around excellent performance as a fledgling entrepreneur with a crazy home life.
Sylvester Stallone and Michael B. Jordan star in 'Creed.' (Photo: Barry Wetcher)
Supporting actor
Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Will win/should win: Stallone
Elba is powerful as Beasts' intimidating warlord and Rylance brings quiet intensity to his Soviet operative in Spies. Still, from seemingly out of nowhere, Stallone turns in his best performance since, well, his Oscar-nominated role in 1976's original Rocky. He's got serious punch and gravitas as an aging Rocky Balboa who's both a mentor to a young up-and-comer and a man fighting the breakdown of his own body.
Jane Fonda in 'Youth.' (Photo: Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Supporting actress
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Will win: Fonda
Should win: Leigh
This category could go all sorts of ways, so it nicely encapsulates this thus-far-wholly-unpredictable awards season. Any of the women could capture the Globe, though Fonda may have an advantage in terms of body of work and a role, as an old Hollywood icon in Youth, that's made for acceptance speeches. But Leigh is spectacular in her own right as Quentin Tarantino's snarling, singing Hateful fugitive Daisy Domergue.
Charlize Theron (center) and director George Miller on the set of 'Mad Max: Fury Road.' (Photo: Warner Bros. Pictures)
Director
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Will win: Scott
Should win: Miller
No filmmaker got better performances out of his cast than McCarthy, though none had quite the troublesome row to hoe as Iñárritu. That said, the foreign press will likely honor Scott for his feel-good outer space drama, but Miller should get it simply for having the chutzpah to juggle doomsday vehicles and mind-blowing action while never losing sight of the importance of memorable and lasting character work.
