ST. LOUIS — I love going to the movies.
Now, I actually mean leaving the house to drive to a theater and sit in a dark room with a big screen. Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, and more have nearly turned off the lights this year due to the pandemic pushing back big releases and streaming being the only outlet for fresh films. A couple months ago, I would have told you movie theaters would make it out of 2020 alive.
I don't think I can say that so confidently today.
The truth is movie theaters are for the most part currently closed. The old fashioned delight, Galleria 6 Cinemas, is open and trying to hang on, but what are the long-term prospects here? Can even bigger chains like AMC and Marcus Theaters climb out of the rut financially? One has to carry some doubt into that discussion.
Monday night, "Tenet" was indefinitely pushed back. Christopher Nolan's science fiction thriller was supposed to break the gridlock that has been placed on big releases since the middle of March. It moved back from July 17 to Aug. 12 in two separate moves, but there was hope still out there that it would be the first and most likely only summer release. Now, that is gone. I wouldn't expect this film to be released before October.
That's where "Wonder Woman: 1984" moved to. "Mulan" is there, as well. The next and final Daniel Craig James Bond film comes out in November, along with "Black Widow." But I wouldn't bet half my mortgage that one of those dates holds up.
In the end, everything is getting pushed back. That's the coronavirus swinging the stick here. Until a studio can be convinced in making a big profit back on their big release, they won't come out in theaters... or at all. Well, for the most part. The new Tom Hanks-World War II film, "Greyhound," was originally supposed to open for Universal in theaters. It came out on Apple TV earlier this month.
The real question is more simple and blunt: Will people go back to movie theaters enough to make a big film sing? This is becoming more of a reality with each delay and spike in coronavirus cases.
Think about it for a second. Since the first wave hasn't even concluded yet, and a second wave was already expected in the fall, when will people actually feel safe going back to a theater? When can studios expect that particular amount of moviegoers willing to travel to a theater expected to spike? Streaming houses sure aren't waiting to pounce on the open terrain.
Netflix is having a great summer. The Chris Hemsworth film, "Extraction," was a smash hit and will spawn a sequel. "The Old Guard," starring Charlize Theron, generated 72 million views in its first ten days. Netflix dominated the Oscar nominations last year. They put out original content just about every day: including movies, shows, adopted shows from other networks ("KINGDOM!!!"), and stand-up comedy specials. Monday morning, the mesmerizing ESPN sports docu-series, "The Last Dance," debuted on Netflix.
Hulu scored a nice little hit with "Palm Springs." Amazon releases content every week as well as receiving films that were released in theaters or originally aimed for a theater release, such as Gavin O'Connor's "The Accountant" and Judd Apatow's "The King of Staten Island."
When people finally decide to go back out to movie theaters, it may be too late. Maybe it won't be. The movies were having a good year less than three months into the year. "Bad Boys For Life" led the pack at $405 million while "Sonic The Hedgehog" brought in $300 million-plus. "Birds of Prey" and "Dolittle" topped $200 million. That's a strong start to the year, but at the same time, a pre-pandemic world that looked so much different.
What if there are no big releases in 2020? If the box office dies this year, can 2021 avenge it? With streaming devices providing comfortable yet still potent entertainment, the theater houses are suffering with their hands tied.
For the first time in my life, I now have doubts about the future of movies in movie theaters.
Here's the idea. All big films scheduled for 2020 should be moved to 2021. Save them. Trust me, the theaters will need them to survive. Scheduled films for 2021 could be pushed back to 2022, ensuring new films will be coming in the next two years. With spiking cases, film sets won't fire up too fast this summer. So move it all back. Let the independent films dominate a year for a change. Keep them coming.
Will that work? Once again, I have my doubts. Only time will tell.
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