ST. LOUIS — From vaccines to decreasing hospitalizations to the incredible work of hospital workers, the leader of the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force said he sees many reasons to have hope and continue the fight against the coronavirus.
On Monday, Dr. Alex Garza, the incident commander of the task force, marked the one year point of the pandemic by looking at the many reasons he said the next months look hopeful when it comes to the pandemic. Even in the face of the winter, which is expected to be the darkest time of the pandemic, he said the work of the public can keep the virus at bay.
"For one thing, the number of COVID-related hospitalizations in our systems is starting to trend down again," Dr. Garza said. "The fact that this is happening in the winter — when respiratory viruses typically spread the most — shows us just how effective all of those prevention measures actually are when people use them."
Dr. Garza said the current trends show people are taking the virus seriously and doing everything in their own power to prevent its spread. That includes wearing a mask and limiting interactions with others.
Dr. Garza said no one can be sure if the worst of the pandemic is behind us, but people should find comfort in who has control over what happens next.
"The most empowering thing that we can say for sure is that we control whether that spike happens," he said. "Now, if we continue to double down for a while longer on the steps that work, we will be able to keep the virus from spreading and keep more people from becoming sick."
Dr. Garza said vaccination efforts should add to the optimism. He said there will be snags in the process, but he believes the process will ramp up.
Dr. Garza said people need to be patient until the vaccine can be administered to enough people. During that time, people need to continue mitigation efforts like mask-wearing and social distancing.
Dr. Garza said he sees another reason for optimism every day at work: the health care workers that have continued to work throughout the pandemic.
"I also see signs of hope in our hospital staff as well, who, despite being exhausted, continue to care for those that are hospitalized," he said. "Don't forget, they are a year into this pandemic as well, and they've seen thousands of people become sick and die, yet they continue to care for each patient with the same passion that they've had all along."
On Monday, Dr. Garza said modeling data showed decreasing cases across the area, which has led to decreasing hospitalizations in task force hospital systems.
On Monday, the task force reported an increase in hospitalizations in the last 24 hours, but the seven-day average continued to fall.
The following data are the combined figures from the four major health systems (BJC HealthCare, Mercy, SSM Health, St. Luke’s Hospital) that are part of the task force, for January 25.
- New hospital admissions (data lagged two days) increased - from 65 yesterday to 67 today.
- The seven-day moving average of hospital admissions (data lagged two days) remained the same at 77 today.
- The seven-day moving average of hospitalizations decreased - from 628 yesterday to 616 today.
- Inpatient confirmed COVID positive hospitalizations increased – from 569 yesterday to 591 today.
- Inpatient suspected COVID positive hospitalizations decreased – from 60 yesterday to 36 today.
- The number of confirmed COVID positive patients in the ICUs increased – from 125 yesterday to 127 today.
- The number of confirmed COVID positive patients on ventilators decreased – from 84 yesterday to 82 today.
- The number of COVID deaths decreased – from 10 yesterday to 7 today.
- The seven-day moving average of COVID deaths decreased – from 14 yesterday to 13 today.
- Across the system hospitals, 44 COVID-19 patients were discharged to home yesterday, bringing the cumulative number of COVID-19 patients discharged to 17,225.
- Today, staffed bed hospital capacity is at 81%, an average across our task force hospitals. The ICU’s are at 82% of their total staffed bed capacity.
On Monday, Missouri's health department reported 450,414 cases and 6553 deaths as of Monday, a single-day increase of 879 cases and five deaths.
Monday was the first time the state reported fewer than 1,000 new cases since Oct. 13.
The department also reported 4,060,435 PCR tests as of Monday, a single-day increase of 9,047 tests. It's the first time the state has reported fewer than 10,000 tests since Jan. 4.
The seven-day positivity average in the state reported on the department's dashboard was 11.1% Monday, the lowest in the state since Oct. 23.
In Illinois, the health department reported 1,104,763 cases and 18,798 deaths, a single-day increase of 2,944 cases and 48 deaths.
The health department also reported 15,484,034 cases, a single-day increase of 74,202.
The state's seven-day positivity rate was 5.0% Monday, the lowest since Oct. 15.
In the Metro East, the positivity rate reported on the health department's regional dashboard was 7.8%. It is the lowest in the region since Oct. 19.
The positivity rate threshold to move from Tier 2 restrictions to Tier 1 restrictions is 8%. If the region can remain under 8% and keep ICU bed availability above 20%, restrictions could be loosened again soon. The region's ICU bed availability was 19% on Monday.
