ST. LOUIS — On Monday, 145 COVID-positive patients were admitted to hospitals in the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force, down from 200-plus per day the previous week. Task force leaders say they are hopeful about what that could mean for the region but say that is still far more than the system is able to handle.
"We're hopeful that this represents that not as many people are getting sick enough to be admitted to the hospital," Dr. Alex Garza said in a Tuesday briefing. "But don't forget, the 145 people being admitted is still a lot of people."
Task force leaders have said in the past that 40 admissions per day represented a "red line" that was a cause for concern. The seven-day average for admissions has been above 40 since Nov. 21, 2021.
Both Dr. Garza and Dr. Clay Dunagan said there were signs that the spread of the omicron variant was slowing down some, but they said it was too soon to tell if it was the turning of a corner or the result of factors like weather and a holiday weekend. Even if the region has experienced the peak of the omicron variant, Dr. Dunagan said it will still be a while before the health system can resume normal operations.
"Many people are asking, 'When is the peak?' as if that's a point at which we can start to relax, but that's really not the case," Dr. Dunagan said. "We have a long way to go before we get back to something that feels more normal and before the health system can fulfill all its responsibilities for taking care of our communities."
While hospital admissions appear to be receding, COVID-19 deaths are reaching their highest point since early 2021. The seven-day average of COVID-19 deaths in task force hospitals was 20 for the last three days, and double what it was two weeks ago. According to task force data, 593 people have died from COVID-19 in task force hospitals since Nov. 15.
Dr. Garza said because deaths are a lagging indicator, they expect to see high numbers of COVID-19 deaths for the "foreseeable future."
Dr. Dunagan said the best way to reduce the spread of the virus is to get vaccinated and wear a mask in heavily populated areas. He said the idea of reaching herd immunity by letting the virus spread unchecked would result in a large "human cost" that is avoidable.
"We have a vaccine. It's highly effective. It's much less troublesome to get a vaccination than to experience that bout of COVID," he said. "And that protects those in the population who really don't have the strength of the immune system to ward off the virus have another compounding disease that makes it harder for them to withstand the virus and for those among us who appear perfectly healthy but still suffer grave consequences when they contract COVID."
The St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force is releasing the following updated data slides, combining figures from the four major health systems (BJC HealthCare, Mercy, SSM Health, St. Luke’s Hospital) and the VA St. Louis Healthcare System, who are part of the task force.
After this week, the task force is combining the data from all the hospitals.
The data for January 18, 2022 from the task force:
- New hospital admissions (data lagged two days) increased – from 145 Monday to 175 Tuesday. This data remains unchanged with the VA admissions data.
- The seven-day moving average of hospital admissions (data lagged two days) decreased – from 213 Monday to 210 Tuesday.
- The seven-day moving average of hospitalizations increased – from 1374 Monday to 1381 Tuesday. *New seven-day moving average record. Without the VA data, the seven-day moving average is 1368.
- Inpatient confirmed COVID positive hospitalizations decreased – from 1444 Monday to 1392 Tuesday. Without the VA data there are 1347 hospitalizations.
- Inpatient suspected COVID positive hospitalizations decreased – from 47 Monday to 44 Tuesday. This data remains unchanged with the VA admissions data.
- The number of confirmed COVID-positive patients in the ICU increased – from 211 Monday to 212 Tuesday. Without the VA data there are 209 patients in our ICUs.
- The number of confirmed COVID-positive patients on ventilators remained the same at 119 Tuesday. Without the VA data there are 118 patients on ventilators.
- 20 COVID deaths are being reported Tuesday. This data remains unchanged with the VA data.
- The seven-day moving average of COVID deaths remains the same at 20 Tuesday.
- Across the system hospitals, 247 patients were discharged Monday bringing the cumulative number of COVID-19 patients discharged to 36,206. There is no change in this data with the VA data included.
- Of the 1250 hospitalized COVID patients in the three reporting Task Force hospital systems Tuesday (The VA is not reporting this data) – 479 are fully vaccinated. That’s 38% of the patient population.
- There are 27 COVID-positive children who are 0-11 years of age in Task Force hospitals.
- There are 18 COVID-positive children who are 12-18 years of age in Task Force hospitals.
- There are 8 COVID-positive children who are 0-11 years of age and in the ICU.
- There are 6 COVID-positive children who are 12-18 years of age and in the ICU.
- *The VA does not treat children and is not included in this data
- Tuesday’s staffed bed hospital capacity is at 88% an average across task force hospitals. The ICUs are at 83% of their total staffed bed capacity. Without the VA data included, the staffed bed capacity is at 87% and the ICU capacity is at 83%.