Whatever can go wrong will go wrong. Murphy's Law, they say. I have a new definition for the Cardinal Way in St. Louis. It's doom for young pitchers.
It could just be the fact that a third of Major League pitchers suffer the pitcher nightmare injury, or maybe the Cardinals truly don't know how to manage young arms. It's been the Achilles Heel of the team for decades.
It was the one thing Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan couldn't figure out, and it's extended into the Mike Matheny/Derek Lilliquist and Mike Shildt/Mike Maddux era.
After leaving the game with an apparent triceps injury, all the while passing post game strength tests, Jordan Hicks was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament, which usually leads to Tommy John Surgery.
Doom for pitchers.
While the team hasn't declared a next step, outside of large amounts of bourbon and ice cream, the majority points towards a season-ending injury.
The timing couldn't be more cruel for Hicks, one of the best closers in the game and among baseball's most lethal young arms. He entered Saturday's game 14-15 in saves, and is only 22 years old.
Tommy John would easily eliminate this season and most, if not all, of the 2020 season. Recovery time for pitchers is 12-15 months, which puts a Hicks return around September of next year, right after his 24th birthday.
It's a familiar story for the Cardinals, who suffered another setback on Sunday night when Alex Reyes left a Memphis game with a pectoral muscle ailment.
Reyes was the team's top prospect once upon a time, but is nearing 25 years of age and has only accumulated 53 innings of Major League service time. Reyes had Tommy John Surgery, sandwiched between a drug suspension, a lost season due to a Latissimus dorsi strain, and part of this season already with a broken bone in his left hand.
These injuries will test the depth of John Mozeliak's roster construction, which stayed away from the likes of Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel in the offseason.
Instead of adding depth along with Paul Goldschmidt, Mozeliak stood pat with his bullpen, young arms, and the time-tested duo of Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha as his rotation anchor.
He could have solidified the pitching staff against injury, but Mozeliak and his lackey, Michael Girsch, refused to believe in "a team can never have too much pitching" moral. They were conservative instead of proactive, and now will have to lean on their beloved pitching depth to survive.
No, I am not talking about the Tyler Webbs of the world. The Cardinals will have to lean on all the stronger ends of their relief corps before the inevitable search for pitching in a month.
Carlos Martinez should move into the closer's role. If he isn't going to be stretched out to start, put him in a situation of impact. He has a closer's skill set, so use it.
Andrew Miller is improving, but I'd keep handing high-leverage spots to Giovanny Gallegos. The young man who came over in the Luke Voit trade continues to impress, and the worn-down arms of John Gant and John Brebbia don't need any additional stress.
As far as Hicks is concerned, the young man hits a setback that is unfortunate.
It isn't just the fact that he throws 100 miles-per-hour with wicked movement and makes hitters talk to themselves on National television; he's a fine young man who is entering a rigorous rehab if the surgery is needed.
The human element is often lost in the wake of major injury diagnosis, and make no mistake, this is a major injury.
There's a slim chance that rest and treatment will heal a slight tear, but if you know the Cardinals and their luck with young pitching, it's not minor and will require a long period of recovery.
They say you reap what you sow. In the case of the Cardinals this season, they refused to add extra forces to their pitching core. Now, before the midway point of the season, young arms have fallen down. Wainwright and Wacha have already hit the IL, and other arms like Austin Gomber and Mike Mayers have been gone for weeks. Reyes has already suffered two injuries, and wildly enough, enters his first year of arbitration eligibility next year. Now, Hicks could potentially be gone for a season and a half. Ouch.
The Cardinals stood pat, and will now see their resilience tested.
Other General Managers and teams will know this team is now leaking oil, and will ask for a king's ransom in a trade. The time to buy without the consequence of loss is gone. Desperation has now come forward.
The rotation has looked good against subpar lineups the past two weeks, but will be tested eventually. The bullpen was somewhat formidable before Hicks' injury, but now looks vulnerable. Reinforcements will be necessary, but now loom as costly.
Sometimes, waiting is a good idea. Other times, it can be treacherous. Tread lightly, Mo and company.
