ST. LOUIS, Missouri — The battle to put an abortion question on the Missouri ballot in 2024 has started off down two separate paths.
The window has already opened for organizers to start collecting enough signatures to qualify for the 2024 ballot, but so far, only a Republican-backed effort to allow abortions during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy has started its public campaign. That provision would also create exceptions for abortions after 12 weeks in cases where rape or incest have occurred, or where the mother's life is at risk.
“We have put forth a plan that is passable in Missouri,” pro-choice Republican Jamie Corley told 5 On Your Side.
Corley, the Executive Director of the MO Women and Family Research Fund, said her organization is the only abortion initiative group actively collecting signatures.
"There's way better alternatives than that," Missouri Democratic Party Chairman Russ Carnahan said.
However, none of those alternatives have emerged with a clear base of support behind them. Various pro-choice groups haven't yet started collecting signatures due to private internal disagreements about their best strategy moving forward.
“I think they're looking at other states. They're probably looking at polling and looking at funding," Carnahan said. "But I expect... I'm very optimistic. I think this is going to get on our ballot.”
Political operatives face another challenge in relying on accurate polling data, because their target threshold may still change. Missouri legislators have suggested they could take another pass at raising the bar to make it harder to alter the state constitution before the upcoming election. Current state law only requires a simple majority of voters to adopt a constitutional amendment.
For months, pro-choice groups that back more permissive abortion policies, like the American Civil Liberties Union of Missouri and Abortion Action Missouri, blamed Republican state officials for using stall tactics to delay their efforts in court. That court battle ended in November when the Missouri Supreme Court rejected Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft's efforts to try and inject what the courts called inaccurate and partisan language into that ballot question. While Ashcroft was defeated in court, the time it took to litigate the issue kept pro-choice advocates waiting for resolution.
“The timeline has absolutely impacted the interest of investors because they see how much more of a challenge it is on a limited timeline,” Abortion Action Missouri Executive Director Mallory Schwarz told Politico earlier this week. “They have lost in court four times in the past month, and they don’t care because their goal was to run out the clock.”
Abortion advocates close to the Missouri petition drive say fundraising efforts continue behind the scenes. Individuals involved with their effort confirm they held several recent strategic conversations on how best to chart a path forward, including on Friday, with national groups interested in supporting their effort with significant resources. One of them is 'Think Big America,' Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker's national abortion PAC.
"Think Big America knows never to underestimate the strength of the fight for reproductive rights," spokeswoman Christina Amestoy told 5 On Your Side.
"If they are out pitching donors on their plan to move forward before they even told the Missouri electorate, that’s wrong," Corley said. "That is putting your donors before the people, and I think it’s past time that they tell Missouri voters what the plan is."
"We believe that our ballot initiative is passable with the majority of Missourians," she said. "There has been a lot of fractures within the other coalition, but at the end of the day, I do think we all want abortion access restored for Missourians and this total ban taken off the books."
Any measure that wants to make it on the ballot must collect at least 171,000 signatures before a May 2024 deadline.