ST. LOUIS, Missouri — Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Missouri's top election official, is coming under increasing pressure to fast track the certification of petition signatures in time for Gov. Mike Parson to put a highly anticipated abortion question on the August primary ballot.
"No decisions have been made regarding when any of the current initiative petitions will appear on the ballot," Parson spokesman Johnathan Shiflett said in an emailed statement. "However, Governor Parson wants all options, primary or general elections, available to him when scheduling elections for any of the initiative petitions being circulated."
Campaigns to legalize sports betting and abortion access each delivered more than 300,000 petition signatures to Ashcroft's office late last week.
Other pushes to raise the minimum wage, guarantee paid sick leave, and allow a riverboat casino on the Osage River also gathered enough signatures to advance one step closer to the ballot.
Ashcroft's office now has four weeks to organize those petitions and deliver them to local election authorities across the state for further scrutiny. Each county has until July 30th to return the confirmed files back to Ashcroft.
State law gives Ashcroft two weeks after July 30, until Aug. 13, to audit the county findings and certify their authenticity. The primary election is on Aug. 6.
Expert election attorney Chuck Hatfield said "there's no way it can go on the August ballot" under the regular certification schedule, but he suggested there is one alternative legal short cut that would allow Ashcroft to bypass the more rigorous signature review and fast track some questions to the primary ballot.
"If they were to do random sampling, it might be possible to get on the August ballot," Hatfield said. "They have told people over and over again that they will not do random sampling."
In a Monday morning phone call, Ashcroft spokesman JoDonn Chaney said "there is no plan" to use that speedier certification process known as random sampling. He said it was "probably not as accurate as the method where you check every signature."
"Regarding the abortion measure, Governor Parson is a strong and proven pro-life Governor," Shiflett said. "If he believes scheduling that measure for the August primary will best support the pro-life movement, then he expects to have that option."
Parson also has legal authority to schedule a special election between August and November, but that would come at significant cost to taxpayers and local election officials, and it would almost certainly face legal challenges.
"Governor Parson put Medicaid expansion on the August ballot," Hatfield said about the 2020 vote. "Many say that's because he wanted smaller turnout, and he thought it was less likely to pass with smaller turnout. So governors have put these initiatives on the primary ballot in the past. How it affects turnout or who benefits is a political question."
For that question, we turned to political science professor Anita Manion.
"We see a lot of people are turned off by the top of the ballot, the Biden Trump rematch," Manion said. "But a lot of people -- and particularly young people and what we call low propensity voters -- don't have those partisan identities. They're more driven by issues. And so having issues like this on the ballot where they can have direct democracy can drive turnout."
Could these issues in particular benefit one party over another?
"I don't think that sports betting is necessarily partisan," Manion said. "But when it comes to things like minimum wage, you could see lower income and younger voters motivated by that. And certainly the abortion initiative could be motivating to voters on both sides of the aisle."
Meanwhile, Republican state legislators have advanced rival proposals to make it harder for voters to write changes into the state constitution. Those proposals, which could appear on the August ballot without the extra layer of signature review, would also require voters approval before they could take effect.
"So they tried that in Ohio, and it failed pretty spectacularly," Manion said. "We would sort of expect the thing that same thing in Missouri. Most of the time, people don't want to vote to take away some of their voice."
Below is the list of questions voters could see on their ballots this fall once they are certified:
Sports betting
Do you want to amend the Missouri Constitution to:
- allow the Missouri Gaming Commission to regulate licensed sports wagering including online sports betting, gambling boats, professional sports betting districts and mobile licenses to sports betting operators;
- restrict sports betting to individuals physically located in the state and over the age of 21;
- allow license fees prescribed by the Commission and a 10% wagering tax on revenues received to be appropriated for education after expenses incurred by the Commission and required funding of the Compulsive Gambling Prevention Fund; and
- allow for the general assembly to enact laws consistent with this amendment?
State governmental entities estimate onetime costs of $660,000, ongoing annual costs of at least $5.2 million, and initial license fee revenue of $11.75 million. Because the proposal allows for deductions against sports gaming revenues, they estimate unknown tax revenue ranging from $0 to $28.9 million annually. Local governments estimate unknown revenue.
Abortion
Do you want to amend the Missouri Constitution to:
- establish a right to make decisions about reproductive health care, including abortion and contraceptives, with any governmental interference of that right presumed invalid;
- remove Missouri’s ban on abortion;
- allow regulation of reproductive health care to improve or maintain the health of the patient;
- require the government not to discriminate, in government programs, funding, and other activities, against persons providing or obtaining reproductive health care; and
- allow abortion to be restricted or banned after Fetal Viability except to protect the life or health of the woman?
State governmental entities estimate no costs or savings, but unknown impact. Local governmental entities estimate costs of at least $51,000 annually in reduced tax revenues. Opponents estimate a potentially significant loss to state revenue.
Minimum Wage and Paid Sick Leave
Do you want to amend Missouri law to:
- increase minimum wage January 1, 2025 to $13.75 per hour, increasing $1.25 per hour each year until 2026, when the minimum wage would be $15.00 per hour;
- adjust minimum wage based on changes in the Consumer Price Index each January beginning in 2027;
- require all employers to provide one hour of paid sick leave for every thirty hours worked;
- allow the Department of Labor and Industrial Relations to provide oversight and enforcement; and
- exempt governmental entities, political subdivisions, school districts and education institutions?
State governmental entities estimate one-time costs ranging from $0 to $53,000, and ongoing costs ranging from $0 to at least $256,000 per year by 2027. State and local government tax revenue could change by an unknown annual amount depending on business decisions.
Osage River Casino
Do you want to amend the Missouri Constitution to:
- allow the Missouri Gaming Commission to issue one additional gambling boat license to operate on the portion of the Osage River from the Missouri River to the Bagnell Dam;
- require the prescribed location shall include artificial spaces that contain water and are within 500 feet of the 100-year base flood elevation as established by the Federal Emergency Management Agency; and
- require all state revenues derived from the issuance of the gambling boat license shall be appropriated to early-childhood literacy programs in public institutions of elementary education?
State governmental entities estimate one-time costs of $763,000, ongoing costs of $2.2 million annually, initial fee revenue of $271,000, ongoing admission and other fee revenue of $2.1 million annually, and annual gaming tax revenue of $14.3 million. Local governments estimate unknown revenue.