SWANSEA, Illinois — During his short career in politics, Darren Bailey has crafted his outsider persona by loudly railing against all the things he opposes: income taxes, gay marriage, the city of Chicago, vaccines, workplace mask mandates, gun laws, 'woke' curriculum and abortion.
Now, on the eve of primary election night in Illinois, he faces the prospect of defeat at the hands of the party -- and the president -- he supports.
In a move that initially surprised both campaigns, former President Donald Trump endorsed Congressman Mike Bost over Bailey last month. Political reporters at CNN and Politico later detailed how House Speaker Mike Johnson lobbied Trump to give Bost a boost.
Up until that point in the race, both campaigns described a close contest. Ever since, Bost appears to be operating with a bit more breathing room, though he said on Monday night he plans to still run scared of losing.
"I'm gonna act like (Bailey) may (pull off the upset), and we're gonna keep working through it," Bost said during his 'Road to Victory Tour' on Monday afternoon. "My main goal is to make sure that the votes come out."
Several other power players in the right wing political arena have supported Bost over Bailey, too, including the National Rifle Association, the National Federation of Independent Business, Speaker Mike Johnson, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and U.S. Reps. Elise Stefanik, Jim Jordan and Byron Donalds.
The Illinois Fire Fighters Association, the Illinois Fraternal Order of Police, and the Illinois Farm Bureau also backed Bost.
Before Trump's endorsement, Bailey and Bost brought a carousel of Congressmen through the district, hoping to tout their close relationship with Trump or those in his orbit.
Bailey rallied with U.S. Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mary Miller, while Bost attended events alongside Reps. Ronny Jackson, Morgan Luttrell, and Max Miller.
One candid behind-the-scenes moment at a campaign stop in Clinton County revealed how sensitive Bost was to Bailey's barrage of pro-Trump posts. Jackson, who previously worked as Trump's White House physician, recorded a brief endorsement video for Bost, but his first draft made no mention of his ties to the Trump administration. Then, after a quick conversation with Bost and Luttrell, he recalibrated and recorded a second version. This time, he made sure to highlight his close personal relationship to Trump.
After securing Trump's endorsement, Bost said Bailey's constant posts about the former president on social media were "so strange."
"Every time you turn around, there was a post out there that tried to make it look like that Darren felt like he was going to get this endorsement," Bost said.
In the same interview, Bost said for Bailey to unseat him at this point would be "bizarre."
Bost closes out the race with more than five-fold lead in campaign cash. Other indications suggest Bailey's campaign may be sputtering down the stretch.
In a rather unusual move, his campaign kept his location and schedule private on the last full day of his campaign. Most winning campaigns spend that precious time trying to soak up all the earned media and public exposure they can manage. Only late in the day on Monday, and after several questions, did they eventually reveal the candidate would be speaking at a church in Marion on Monday night.
A review of census data and voting records strongly suggest the district map also benefits Bost's re-election bid. Six of the seven most populated counties in the sprawling, rural Southern Illinois congressional district are home turf for Bost. Republican primary voters there are more familiar with him. Roughly 65% of the voters in the newly drawn district were part of the old district Bost represented. By contrast, Bailey has only represented roughly 22% of the voters in the district during his brief stints in the Illinois House and Senate.
Still, Bailey enjoys higher name recognition across the state after a failed bid for governor in 2022. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker's own campaign spent $24 million to help Bailey survive the primary contest. The Democratic Governors Association ran ads highlighting Bailey's stances on conservative hot-button issues in hopes to propel him into the general election. Now, Bailey is attempting to parlay the popularity from that race into a seat in Congress.
Bailey has attempted to paint Bost as a Washington insider, but the incumbent Congressman reframed Bailey's inexperience and ineffectiveness in office as a liability.
"He did pass a bill that increased the penalty for going around the arm on a school bus," Bost said of Bailey. "That's the only the only piece of legislation he's ever passed."
"You need to know a whole lot more than where the bathroom is when you first get in," Bost said.