Imagine a driver pulling out of a lot after getting a full tank of gas, driving for a bit before getting lost, and suddenly finding himself pulling back into the same lot. The GPS has no answers, the people around the car look clueless, and the driver is sweating in desperation.
Welcome to the St. Louis Cardinals in 2019.
A game under .500: a place the Cardinals didn't think they would be at the midway point of the season of a glorious playoff return. Yet, here they are, losing the first two games to San Diego and looking about as strong as a car sliding down an iced road with faulty brake pads.
It's easy to blame the manager, but that doesn't stick here. About a year ago, the Cardinals were 47-46 when they fired Mike Matheny, John Mabry, and Bill Mueller. The team installed Mike Shildt and went on a tear before hitting a brick wall in September. They ran out of time but saw enough to bypass interviews with other managers, take the interim tag off Shildt's label and upgraded the roster from regular to premium.
Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller have joined the team but failed to make a real impact. The former has made the All-Star Team in his last six seasons but won't make the trip in his first full season in St. Louis. After a torrid April, the 31-year-old slugger has forgotten how to slug or hit much of anything. Take away those blissful two weeks in the opening month, and he's a poor man's Brandon Moss. He's slugging under .400 the past two months and is taking the kind of swings that would give Nick Stavinoha's follow-through a pardon.
Miller has improved since a rough start, but an overall 5.22 FIP (fielding independent pitching), six home runs allowed in 26 innings and wild streak haven't done the club many favors. He's still striking guys out (13.2 per nine), but he's looking less like the dominant southpaw from years past.
The rest of the team is an island of misfit toys, at least the ones who aren't injured. Marcell Ozuna is out with two broken fingers, and he was the only potent bat the lineup. Closer Jordan Hicks is gone until at least 2020 and Alex Reyes is busy not punching things while a pectoral muscle heals. Matt Carpenter hasn't hit a lightning streak like he did in 2018, and he can't even get on base these days.
There are bright spots. Every funeral has a good snack bar. The rotation ranks in the top 5 in the National League, and the defense has improved. The baserunning is sharp and stolen bases are even happening. The days of Carpenter getting thrown out at a base every other game are gone, and Ozuna hasn't fallen off an outfield wall in a few weeks.
The hitting has vanished somehow, looking worse than it did a few years ago when the team couldn't hit for power. Due to the coldness around Goldschmidt and Carpenter's bats, along with a hard time with runners in scoring position, the Cardinals can't get the big hit. This is something fans have heard for years on the radio. During Friday's 3-1 loss, Ricky Horton told the KMOX audience that the team lacked the big hit. I could have sworn I was listening to a broadcast from 2017.
The biggest issue is slugging, or lack thereof. While the team ranks 24th in Major League Baseball in batting average and 20th in on-base percentage, their .397 slugging percentage leaves them in the pit at 27th. This team can't hit for power, and that will kill a lot of rallies. Their 96 home runs are almost as low as their doubles count, which sits at 29th.
Starting Tommy Edman every day and calling up Tyler O'Neill is nice, but far from a day-saving idea. Any moves at the deadline will result in uncomfortable, future-changing decisions. Is John Mozeliak ready to move Carpenter, who just got an extension? Can you move Dexter Fowler, who is holding off invisibility with a .346 OBP? Ozuna's injury may slow down his trade value, and Paul DeJong has joined Goldschmidt in the chilly April afterlife of production. Who else are you moving? Gold Glove-caliber Kolten Wong doesn't hit much and Harrison Bader's .210 average won't impress.
It's easy to say the Cardinals need hitting, but where do you make the swap and who goes? What are you expecting to get in return? And please don't think this rotation won't eventually need repairs. This entire team needs a lot of work, but with a $162 million payroll, will have to navigate nimbly to find fixes.
The Cardinals have lost five straight games and sit four games out of first place. They are seventh in the wildcard standings if you were wondering, sitting behind Milwaukee and just ahead of Pittsburgh. After the finale in San Diego, they face the two of the worst teams in baseball in San Francisco and Seattle before the All-Star break provides mercy. If Miami gave them a fight recently at Busch Stadium, I wouldn't call the Giants and Mariners easy stepping stones.
How bad is it? The Cardinals have scored three runs in their last three games, and have scored two runs or fewer in nine games this month. At what point does one refer to this offense as criminally ill?
The thing about a baseball season is that at some point, a team's identity settles in. What they are and can be. The fan base can refuse to believe it and the front office can reassure that fan base that everything will be OK, but the reality is there. You are what you are when July rolls around. A hot streak can take the pain away temporarily, but it's not a permanent fix.
Mozeliak will continue to say, "we still believe this team can win," but he's doing that from atop a bed of cash that the team is raking in. Busch Stadium has sold out, officially, eleven times in 2019. Now, that's a paid crowd, because anyone at those games will tell you 40,000 aren't always in the room.
This team's hitting doesn't need Moneyball; they need an intervention. Something to snap them out of it. Sunday may not be the day. The Padres young starter, Joey Lucchesi, is a soft-tossing lefthander who recently shut down the Brewers and has solid numbers across the board in 2019. He's not perfect, but will probably be too much for the Birds.
Here's the big question: when will this team return to playoff certainty? In their fourth year since playoff entry, they are once again looking like a fringe wildcard team. They are projected to win 82 games if they are lucky. In order to get to 88 wins, which would give them a shred of wildcard hope, they would have to go 48-31 the rest of the way. Is that possible? I don't think so.
They can't hit. In order to pull out of it, they need a few bats to lock in or come alive, with Goldschmidt being chief among them.
A year later, with a new manager and stud first baseman, the Cardinals are in the same spot. They are hovering around the .500 mark instead of dominating.
The question now becomes more sinister: how active will the front office be if they are still making money while a playoff-less product spins its wheels?
Mike Matheny may have been a bad manager who couldn't adapt, but he wasn't the disease. It's still inside, wreaking havoc.
Welcome to the midway point, Cardinals fans. It's officially not early anymore.
