ST. LOUIS — Whenever the pitching addicts tell me it wins World Series titles, I tell them it's actually won by the teams that score enough runs. After all, a great pitcher can shut the other team out but if he gets no run support, you can kiss the win goodbye. That's the unfortunate but true aspect of the game most fans would like to forget so their fancy arguments make more sense.
The St. Louis Cardinals, fractured bullpen and all, have a lot of pitching depth, so I'm not worried there. Whatever relief deficiency they run into, all Mike Maddux has to do is convert another starter to a middle Major League Baseball reliever. It's been done time and time again with different pitching coaches and managers, so they can do that and make due.
The most problematic part of the Cardinals in 2020 is their lineup. Can the team score enough runs? The offense is suspect and dependent on a lot of things coming true. There's more hope than certainty in this group of hitters. Let's go ahead and down the projected starter list.
Paul Goldschmidt had a very good season by Major League standards, but not by his own expectations. He got off to a wicked hot start, chilled quickly, and spent the rest of the season being hot and cold. He produced and supplied Gold Glove-caliber defense, but the Cardinals need more from him. They need A+ Goldschmidt. That's what they paid for.
Matt Carpenter will be over at third base or in the DH spot, and the team hopes the beast from 2013-2018 shows back up. The one who draws walks, smacks doubles, and sends quite a few over the wall while playing 2-3 positions. They need him to get on base and provide power, and give third base a good name. He is only getting older and had a very subpar 2019 season. This is a hope, because Carpenter isn't a spring chicken anymore.
Paul DeJong is a 4-5 WAR player due to his defense. The offense has pop to it, but also tons of faults. A lot of strikeouts and very chilly dry spells at the plate don't make for an exciting talent. DeJong turns 27 this year and can produce 30 HR/2B, but not much more. His glove is the take or leave here. You can expect right around a .775 OPS from DeJong. Solid, but far from spectacular.
Kolten Wong had his best all-around season last year. In 148 games, Wong put together a .784 OPS with 11 home runs and 24 stolen bases. But like DeJong, Wong is known more for his glove and fieldwork at second base. It was 2019 that Wong finally won a Gold Glove. For his career, Wong's OPS is .7290, though. So hedging bets on his OPS climbing over .800 is quite the stretch.
Yadier Molina continues to defy the odds at an older age, but let's not get ahead of ourselves or overly infatuated. This is a guy who hasn't produced an OPS over .750 in four years, so expectations are more based off hope than assurance. Molina is a guy revered for his defense; the hitting is just a bonus.
The outfield is murkier, but let's assume the starting outfield is Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dexter Fowler get the call. O'Neill has true power and basically one trusted month to judge production off. He's a great talent, but one that doesn't carry a resume just yet. Bader had issues staying above the Mendoza line in 2019, so his glove carried his WAR. He can give you a few weeks worth of power, but oftentimes, a good slider does him in.
Fowler has been a hope case for a couple of years now. Without potentially angering his maddeningly loyal supporters, let me just say the best Fowler expired a long time ago. After a horrendous 2018, Fowler recovered to just around a single Win Above Replacement in 2019. Expecting more than on-base percentage trust and spotty power is not a good bet. And believe me when I tell you Fowler is going to play most, if not all, of the 60 games. Manager Mike Shildt loves him and he makes a lot of money. Facts can hurt like that.
Tommy Edman will play third or right field more days than not, so expect a lot of him in 2020. While 2019 was sharp, especially by the end, I wouldn't hedge a huge bet on him just yet. Let's see how the league adjusts to a full serving of little Tommy. He can swing it (just ask Max Scherzer), but can his bat hold up and be a true place of trusted production? I am not so sure.
Dylan Carlson will impact this season one way or another, but his projections are built off-like the case is with most highly-touted prospects-hopeful past performance at a lesser rank. Carlson needs to be the missing magic piece for the Cardinals, but betting big dollars on that would be categorized as a risk, especially in a 60 game season.
Then again, the amount of games never mattered with an offense that was suspect to begin with. When the Cardinals chose not to add any big bats in the offseason, John Mozeliak was essentially saying he was ready to sell the stock on certain commodities. He wants to cash in on some of the young high-caliber talent like Carlson and Lane Thomas. I don't believe for a second he'll hesitate to ignite the full-blown youth train with Carlson this summer. Why? It's incredibly cheap and if it pays off, Mozeliak looks like a genius again.
The 2020 Cardinals' success will depend on the lineup. Can it produce runs, or will the team be playing a ton of one run games? The first intrasquad game produced zero runs this week. You could call it practice, but the ceiling doesn't really stay in place for these Cardinals.
Pitch all you want; runs are required to win baseball games. Right now on paper, I don't think the Cardinals have near enough firepower on offense to contend deep into the playoffs.
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