With only 38 games remaining in the regular season, the St. Louis Cardinals have a clear shot at the National League Central Division title. They just have to wake up, improve their consistency, and clean up their act a little.
Or a lot.
After their enthralling and season-awakening eight-game winning streak, the Cardinals have returned their play to a 2017-familiar 5-5. As in, for the majority of this season, they have won some, lost some, and won a few more over the course of ten games. We call that inconsistency in sports, but the Cards have a recipe to climb out of their hole and solve their issues.
I picked out five ways because that is a healthy way to explain things these days.
5. Defeat Your Neighbors
The 22-30 record against the NL Central is despicable for a team with playoff aspirations. That's like filling out an application to adopt a brother when you can't even get along with your four birth brothers.
If the Cardinals want to swim with the big fish in October, they have to beat the Pirates and Reds like it's a routine and get the best of the series with the Brewers and Cubs as well. The Pirates are technically still in the race due to the fact that the Cardinals didn't win the series against the Bucs over the weekend. June and July were rough schedule periods for the Cards, but if you can't take care of business against bad teams, what good are you?
Since the all-star break, the Cardinals are 7-9 versus their divisional opponents. Clean it up quick, Birds.
4. Get true ace-caliber work from Carlos Martinez
Martinez hasn't been the ace that the Cardinals needed him to be this year, but there is still time for him to ascend. September is when the true Cy Young-caliber arms dominate — think 2011 Chris Carpenter — so Martinez needs to consistently shut teams down. With the problems in the rotation, Martinez has to be a machine out there for the Cardinals to have a shot.
Overall, Martinez's 118 ERA+ and 2.6 brefWAR are pretty good, but they are lower marks than his 2016 season. The ERA is up and so are the home runs allowed. Martinez has been tagged early by teams in his last ten starts, often putting his Birds in a quick hole. Martinez has four wins in the second half of the season, but his ERA since the all-star break is 4.00. He gave up five earned runs three times in July, where he compiled a 5.90 ERA.
August is better, with Martinez racking up his first eight-inning start since June 10 and keeping the earned runs to three or fewer in all four starts. He ranks fourth in the league in strikeouts with 169 but has to maintain this level of pitching for the duration of 2017.
I know what you are thinking: How dare you go after the holy grail of El Gallo's reputation? But this has nothing to do with his emotion(love it), his hair color(doesn't affect balls and strikes) or his status as a very good pitcher. I want to know when he is going to become a true Cy Young pitcher. Someone who posts an ERA in the neighborhood of 2.00 and consistently pounds out seven to eight inning gems. This is his third year as a starter. The Cards need him to ascend. Forget pitcher wins. Give me dominance in a playoff stretch and I'll dye my hair purple.
3. A healthy Dexter Fowler clubbing in the cleanup spot
Fowler's 1.1 WAR isn't exactly what the Cardinals hoped for when they handed the charismatic center fielder a five-year deal rich in cash, but he's been a great hitter since the end of April. After Fowler knocked the chill off his bat during the first month, he's been exactly what the doctor ordered.
The 15 home runs are two off his career-high and his 49 RBI are four away from his top mark of 53 put up in 2012. Fowler moving into the cleanup spot gave the Cardinals lineup an identity and helped scoot certain players into preferable spots. The defense slept right around average, which is what Fowler was described as with the glove coming into 2017.
In his last 12 games, Fowler has a slash line of .421/.560/.763 with nine of his 16 hits going for extra bases. While he only has one home run in the second half, Fowler's .930 OPS since the break is among the best on the team.
In April, Fowler struck out 25 times and only walked nine times. Since the end of the opening month, Fowler has walked 43 times and struck out just 50 times. His bread and butter is working pitchers over and getting on base — he has done just that since a slow start.
The Cards need him to continue doing that in order to maintain this relatively potent offensive output. With their pitching taking body shots, the run production can't slow down. If the cleanup hitter has no bite, your lineup is as good as whole-bean coffee without a grinder.
Fowler is red-hot right now. He has been for the better part of 2017, when he's been healthy. Can he stay that way? Will the chronic heel issues arise again? Can his back stop barking? The Cards need him in the fourth spot wrecking pitchers.
2. Pick a closer and ride him to the playoffs
2006 and 2011 were notable for a lot of reasons, but the closer role played a vital part in each season. Whether it was Adam Wainwright taking over for a clearly hurt and ineffective Jason Isringhausen or Jason Motte replacing Fernando Salas, the Cards got a late kick from a bullpen shakeup.
2003 isn't that notable. That is when several Cards pitchers tried the ninth and failed. The team should have created a fan participation game in September where one lucky person got a chance to close a game. It was that bad.
Be more like the 2006 and 2011 team. Trevor Rosenthal's velocity was ugly in the final Boston game and he returned home to see specialists. A shoulder ailment was diagnosed, but there's no real timetable for his return. The stabilizing source that fixed the chaotic pen is gone, for the time being, so pick a guy and ride him out.
My pick is John Brebbia.He has been absolutely filthy this season in a variety of roles, producing one of 2017's most unlikely surprises. Sooner or later, Tommy Pham was going to get it together, but who saw Brebbia coming? He's a middle-relief guy and has a 0.9 WAR on the season. Come on. Sam Tuivailala is too inconsistent and Matt Bowman is too versatile, so hand the ball to Brebbia until Rosenthal is 100 percent.
1. For the love of god, Mike Matheny needs to manage better
It's year six and Matheny still makes the same mistakes, whether it's leaving a starter in too long, mismanaging the bullpen or simply being out-managed by the other guy. Matheny loves the game of chess, so you would think figuring out how to use your pawns and knights wouldn't be so hard for him.
Take Pittsburgh, for example. If a few things are changed, the Cards may sweep that series and be in second place right now. First, once Saturday's game was delayed two hours, Michael Wacha should have taken a shower. He's already battling a scapula injury and closing in on the doom gate of 130 innings, so why not get him some rest after the arm had gone cold? I don't care how many pitches he threw in the first inning. Sit him down. He returned to the game and got beaten. You have an eight-man bullpen, so use it.
Second, Mike Leake shouldn't have started Sunday's game. This connects to John Mozeliak and Michael Girsch, but I wonder if Matheny even told them about Leake and his condition of "bad pitching". Also, Matheny could have shown a wise hook in Sunday's game. Leake had already allowed a home run to Josh Bell, his 21st of the season, in the first inning. The bases were loaded in the third inning and instead of going to the pen there to keep a 4-2 game close, Matheny allowed Leake to serve up a two-run single to Bell and another RBI hit to David Freese.
Right there are two examples of managerial decisions. You get a roster and make the best of it. Matheny was rated near the BOTTOM of the league in bullpen management. If he doesn't improve there, the team is doomed. Their rotation is too bent and their offense too streaky, so it falls on the small moves one guy makes.
I've defended Matheny many times to his hundreds of detractors, but that defense is wearing thin. I am starting to wonder whether Matheny should be a life coach or a manager in the Major Leagues.
Let's recap. Beat your weak divisional foes, maintain dynamite work from Martinez and Fowler, name a closer and hope the manager gets it right. It sounds easy enough, but trust me, it's a large task.
If the Cardinals want to stay within their internal powers and not test the waiver market, they need certain things to change. If not, you are looking at the first back-to-back round of playoff-less action since 2007-08.
Forget the schedules of the Cubs or Colorado Rockies. Fix your own engine, Cardinals. Worry about No. 1.
