I didn't come here to tell you that Adam Wainwright deserves one last hurrah with the St. Louis Cardinals as a starting pitcher. I worked that act in April and it backfired quickly.
The truth is the Cardinals don't owe the soon-to-be 37-year-old pitcher anything, because this is the Major Leagues and deserve has little to do with September starts in a playoff chase. Wainwright has missed most of the season, not pitching in a regular season game since May 13 against San Diego. He allowed two earned runs in 2.1 innings that day, throwing 79 pitches to do so. He was shut down shortly after with elbow inflammation. Suddenly, the 2018 comeback was tabled.
After missing nearly three months, Wainwright has made five rehab appearances this month, all starts. A projected landing spot in long relief duty in the bullpen took a turn this morning when President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak informed Tom Ackerman on KMOX that Wainwright could be a starter when he gets back.
This announcement provoked all sorts of reactions from fans, with mostly negative vibes coming in. Due to the hot streak the team is on, a lot of people don't want to mess with what has been working. The starting rotation is turning over ageless beauty for fiery youth, with Jack Flaherty and Austin Gomber leading the charge this past month. Slotting in Wainwright doesn't figure to be to an easy task, especially with Michael Wacha set to return to the rotation soon.
The biggest question one must ask is does Wainwright offer you more than Daniel Poncedeleon and John Gant in the rotation during a stretch where the Cardinals must win every possible game they can? Does #50 give the team their best shot?
No, he doesn't. While I have been critical of Gant's membership in the rotation, he has proved himself to be quite viable, producing seven strong innings in Colorado over the weekend and only allowing more than four earned runs in a start once in his last eight starts. He doesn't always go five innings, but he keeps the Cardinals in games. Poncedeleon carried a no-hitter in the eighth inning in his first start and looked dominant against the Los Angeles Dodgers last week in a start where his arm wasn't properly stretched out. Each of these guys probably offers more than Wainwright at this point.
The other side of the coin states that I doubt Mike Shildt allows Wainwright to burn up on the mound. The interim manager has shown zero hesitation yanking the team's best starter, Miles Mikolas, out of games when something wasn't right. If Wainwright isn't dialed in or looking sharp, Shildt will make the quick hook and turn to the youth to put out the fire.
Let's not completely ignore his work on his rehab assignments either. Wainwright struck out 16 batters, mixing in seven hits allowed with just two walks in 12 innings, spread out across Peoria, Springfield, and Memphis. If he was truly damaged goods, there would be more crooked numbers in those stats.
However, Wainwright missed location several times in throwing to Memphis catcher, Carson Kelly. He relied heavily on his curveball and only had low 90's zip on his fastball. This may play well in the minor leagues where players are scratching off an item from their bucket list in facing Wainwright, but it may not fare as well with big league bats. There's a good mix of fairy tale, potential dread, and antsy anticipation in the Wainwright revival this season.
Still, you don't hand honorary starts to even a veteran like Wainwright, who is arguably the Cardinals' best starter from the last 20 years. A sure-fire selection for the Cardinals Hall of Fame and one of the coolest guys in the game, Wainwright is definitely riding out his last days as a Cardinal. I'd like to think the Cardinals and Mozeliak know what they are doing, have run the numbers, and think Wainwright can compete in these starts.
After all, he looked very good against Milwaukee and Chicago before his abbreviated start against the Padres back in May. According to Redbird Dugout scribe Jon Doble, Wainwright looked a lot better last year than some may have suspected.
Here's what could happen. Wainwright gets the nod in Washington to make his start, goes about 4-5 innings, allows 3-4 runs, and throws around 60-75 pitches. It's important to remember that Wainwright won't be stretched out enough to throw 90-100 pitches in a game. He will have Poncedeleon or Gant running behind him in the start, with Carlos Martinez also available. If you had Wainwright, the old ace, starting a game with Martinez, the new ace, relieving him called in March, please go buy some lottery tickets.
While Wainwright may not have a starter's effectiveness left in him, the Cardinals are placing him in the best position to contribute. That's not handing him a farewell start; it's seeing what is left of a guy who is still hungry to compete. At Wainwright's age, unpredictable bullpen work may backfire worse than a start. If it doesn't work out, a younger arm comes in and the comeback ends in the bullpen. If it goes well, the Cardinals have another viable option in September to start games. This team has experienced plenty of magic this year, so a Wainwright comeback isn't far-fetched.
He doesn't throw 95 mph anymore, and may resemble Billy Chapel more than Chris Carpenter, but the Cardinals are going to check and see what exactly Wainwright is, and what he isn't.
Due to the new manager in place who won't burn Wainwright's arm to a crisp, I have faith this experiment won't end poorly.
What are your thoughts?
