The St. Louis Cardinals sure can develop pitching, but can they lure superstars? Which is better, and which method leads to championships?
When I overheard USA Today columnist Bob Nightengale talk with 590 The Fan host and KSDK Sports director Frank Cusumano this morning, two interesting quotes spoke to the polarizing topic that has flooded Cardinal Nation in the past two winters.
Quote #1: "I don't think anybody develops pitching better than the Cardinals," Nightengale told Cusumano when the young arms were brought up.
Quote #2: "The Cardinals just don't outbid other teams for players," Nightengale said when discussing the chances of St. Louis landing Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.
Let's talk about the first part. The Cardinals currently sit at a middle ground of pitching depth and readiness. Luke Weaver, today's starting pitching, has been a bright spot this month, while Carlos Martinez is settling in as the staff ace. Jack Flaherty impressed earlier this month in place of aging arm Adam Wainwright. Austin Gomber is currently mowing down Memphis opponents while Dakota Hudson and Ryan Helsey also stand out as young guns. Alex Reyes is also close to returning from Tommy John surgery. Jordan Hicks is lighting up MLB bats in the bullpen, but had a starter's arsenal. There are others, but you get the point. These baby birds are deadly.
However, does this directly translate to World Series rings?
The second part should trigger a good discussion. The Cardinals made the best offer of any team to the Miami Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton, but the slugger chose the Yankees. Without bluntly stating it, Stanton didn't believe the Cardinals were World Series contenders at the moment. The Cardinals also offered Jason Heyward more money, but he chose the Chicago Cubs. The North Siders went on to win the World Series, so one could say Heyward guessed right.
Albert Pujols felt scorned back in 2011, heading west to Los Angeles for the rest of his career, even though one could easily point to $254 million reasons for the decision. The Cardinals didn't get involved in the Max Scherzer sweepstakes, and this was a big misfire by John Mozeliak, then General Manager and current President of Baseball Operations. The Cards were in on David Price, but got outbid by the Boston Red Sox.
This coming offseason will be another huge test with Harper, Machado, and Josh Donaldson on the block. Harper would require the team to move on from Tommy Pham and/or Dexter Fowler, but Machado and Donaldson fill a hole in the field and lineup for the Cardinals. Paul DeJong is a decent shortstop, but he can play third and second. Jedd Gyorko fills in nicely at third base, but he can swing around the field as well.
Can the Cardinals outbid teams like the Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants for the services of these superstars? Marcell Ozuna is a very good player, but he's not a star. Matt Carpenter, Fowler, Pham, and DeJong are core players, but not studs. If nostalgia factored in, Yadier Molina would be "it", but it doesn't.
Entering the 2018 season, the Cardinals were picked by many to contend for a wildcard spot. That's an admirable ambition, but for the Cardinals, it's not where they want to be. It's not where they should be. Imagine having a main route to get to a destination, but looking up a Plan B before you leave the house. A team that develops pitching as well as the Cardinals while rocking a $100 million plus payroll shouldn't aim for the last two playoff sports.
You could make the argument that Heyward's defense in 2016 would have helped the Cardinals get the extra two wins to make the playoffs, or that Scherzer's dominance would have helped them in the playoffs in 2015 and pushed them closer in the following two years. The decisions Mozeliak and primary owner Bill DeWitt Jr. haven't made will be met with skepticism, as it should be.
On the flip side, one can say the Cardinals are better off not paying Pujols $30 million when he's in rapid decline or Heyward $23 million to play gold glove defense. It works both ways.
While the Cardinals develop arms, they aren't as good at bringing along bats. Young talents like Kolten Wong, Stephen Piscotty, and Randal Grichuk are either gone or stuck in neutral while the teams awaits the returns of Harrison Bader and Tyler O'Neill. DeJong shows promise, but so did the recently departed Aledmys Diaz.
It is clear the Cardinals are rebuilding the pitching side with youth movement tools, and the early returns are working out. The lineup is bolstered by Ozuna and the arrival of Jose Martinez, but what does Fowler look like in two years and can Pham repeat his 2017 breakout year? The Cardinals need a superstar to climb over the Cubs, or clearly separate themselves from Chicago, Milwaukee, and Pittsburgh.
The Cubs have Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, who are arguably superstars. The Brewers have a collection of bashers, which should keep them in contention until they develop or acquire pitching. The Cardinals have a few very good players, but no superstar.
They need one. You can develop arms, but that doesn't lead to championships-or it takes too long and the rest of your roster is compromised.
There's also the theory that St. Louis' image is hurting the team. In a recent Q&A after a Joe Strauss memorial golf tournament, Mozeliak pointed out how St. Louis needs to improve its allure and make itself attractive. The Cardinals, powered by Team President Bill DeWitt III, is doing their part by developing Ballpark Village Phase 2, which should include some high-rise hotels and commercial buildings, which is something Stanton reportedly told Mozeliak about being a nice thing.
The Cardinals are doing everything they can to help the city look better, but until their team's future looks brighter than the Freedom Tower in New York, it may be hard to lure the big names to the Midwest. It's a brutal reality that will be tested every December. Developing pitching is a cute thing to hang your hat on, but it doesn't guarantee success like a 6-7 perennial difference maker.
The Cardinals remain competitive, but their reliance on youth and stubborn stance on free agents will remain an interesting topic moving forward.
Think about this. If it comes down to trading some of that developed pitching for a proven superstar, will Mozeliak do it? How stubborn can a conductor get with an orchestra that isn't proven to create a great tune?
What do you think? Tell me all about it on Twitter @buffa82 or via email, buffa82@gmail.com
Thanks for reading.
