The question has been asked enough -- is St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter pulling an Allen Craig in his 2015 mid year slide? Is this a terrible sequel to what Cards fans witnessed in 2014 with one of their beloved run producers? The question isn't insane and deserves an answer.
Before his sudden demise in 2014, Craig was an RBI machine and a bargain bat for the Cards. He drove in 90+ runs in 2012 and 2013, slugged over .450 and hit over .300. He cranked 22 home runs in 2012. He was so money and the Cardinals knew it, handing him a 5 year/31 million dollar extension.
If he kept banging out 15-20 HR/90 RBI seasons, 5.5 million per year was well worth Craig's services. Then, 2014 came and Craig wasn't right. After a rough April, Craig had a decent month of May and seemed to be turning it around. June and July revealed something worse. A loss in power and production. Craig wasn't gone but he was lost.
Was it the foot injury he suffered and may have aggravated in the 2013 World Series? Was it something else? Had he just lost it? The answers never came before or after Craig was traded to Boston. He got hurt in his first game at Fenway and wasn't right when he returned. After a 2 hit game on August 24th, Craig hasn't enjoyed a multi-hit game since. He last played for the Boston Red Sox on May 9th and now plays for Pawtucket, their AAA team. Boston is stuck with that contract.
Carpenter, after a freakish 2013 season, put together a strong 2014 season. Batting average, hits, runs scored, home runs, RBI and OBP regressed in 2014 but the production was well above average and the team gave Carpenter a six year/52 million dollar extension. He started off 2015 hotter than any hitter in the National League.
Carpenter had a slugging percentage of .651, an on base percentage of .438 and was hitting .372 at the end of April. He had just one less walk than strikeout(10 to 11) and appeared to be a Marvel Avenger at the plate. Carpenter switched from leadoff to #2 to accomodate other Cardinal hitters getting into their grooves near the end of April. In early May, he missed a series against Pittsburgh due to dehydration and exhaustion. He returned and was a modest producer, hitting 5 home runs and driving in 13 for the month. His BA, OBP and SLUG all decreased though significantly. He only hit .269 for the month, drawing 14 walks but striking out 27 times.
Questions abounded. Did he come back too soon from the exhaustion? Was his plate discipline lacking? Carpenter's June was worse, with his OBP of .337 being the only glimmer of hope. After slugging .473 in May, Carp slugged just .241 in June and hit .190 for the month. He had little power, struck out 22 times while drawing 16 walks(helping his OBP). Things kept going downhill. Manager Mike Matheny and General Manager John Mozeliak didn't discuss an injury and only talked about getting him right. It was like a horror movie taking over for a delightful action flick a third of the way into the movie's running time.
In July, the wheels have kept spinning off. Unlike Craig, Carpenter's decline has been more slow and more deliberate. For the month of July, Carpenter is hitting just .177 and he has a collection of bloop hits(10), a home run and more strikeouts(14). His OBP for the month is .292 and his OPS(OBP + SLUG) is a horrible .517. He has drawn 9 walks but his plate discipline has eroded. He is guessing, chopping at pitches and just looks lost. The trend isn't good for fans or Carpenter.
Here's the most sickening thing. The extra base hit count. A part of Carpenter's game the last 3 years has been the ability to crank doubles and push a hit beyond first base. In April, he had 13, which put him on pace for over 60. That ability has also eroded.
Here are the extra base hit(2B, 3B, HR) counts for Carpenter.
April-17
May-9
June-4
July-1
Sure, you can say he is still drawing walks and finding ways on base via dying quails or grounders with eyes that find a hole. That's fine for most people. That's not Matt Carpenter. The offense hummed with him clicking. It is severely struggling without his versatile artillery of production. Something is wrong and that's the painful part. No one is saying anything. There are no answers.
The reason I tie Carp's war to Craig is that the fans and writers could tell he couldn't generate any power in the last two months. Craig couldn't drive the ball to right field. He just couldn't do something he had done for the past three seasons. Something was wrong but the team only rested him and never disabled him, A day after he got to Boston, he hit the DL. It could have been the injury but it could also have been a noticeable lack of health from Craig's lower half. Fingers weren't pointed because there wasn't enough evidence to support the cause.
Is that the issue with Carpenter? No ideas abound. Matheny and Mozeliak aren't pointing to any injury or suggesting a trip to Memphis. All Matheny can do is rest him here and there, switch him around the lineup and hope for improvement.
Is Matt Carpenter pulling an Allen Craig? Since he can still show an ability to get on base and Craig could never do that, the answer is no. Not yet. Carpenter is not a complete waste. However, the collapse in "expected" production is similar. Craig was expected to knock the ball around the park and drive in runs. He stopped doing that. Carpenter is expected to get doubles, get on base and create all kinds of havoc. He isn't doing that anymore. It's an extended lack of production from a trusted source.
Don't get scared yet Cardinal Nation. Matt Carpenter's overall stat line isn't horrible, but it sure isn't pretty. This is NOT the Matt Carpenter fans saw in April and the past two seasons. This is a guy with a slower bat, less knowledge at the plate and zero confidence. He's searching and John Wayne isn't helping him so watch out.
Matt Carpenter's decline in 2015 may not have reached Allen Craig's level yet, but the trend is far from pretty.
