August means one thing for playoff worthy baseball teams: get busy winning or get busy reloading for next year. If the St. Louis Cardinals want to silence the competition, adding a starter like Justin Verlander would put them over the top. Adding Verlander would be like picking up a shovel and throwing dirt on the rest of the division. Like stopping by Chuck Norris' house on the way to a bar fight. Like..okay, let's dig in.
In case you haven't heard yet, the National League Central Division is officially a dogfight. The Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and even the Pittsburgh Pirates are in contention for the crown. It all comes down to who comes out with the best record in head-to-head matchups the rest of the way-and for the Cardinals, it's do or die.
26 of the final 40 games on the Cardinals schedule come against division opponents, and it's an area the home team must improve upon if they want to be seriously considered. After the two wins this week over the Pirates, the Cardinals are only 22-28 against their division. Enter Verlander, the Detroit Tigers ace looking for new threads to make one final chase at a World Series title. Transferring Verlander to the confines of the pitcher friendly Busch Stadium and facing the worst division in baseball would turn the tables quickly. Let's look at a few ways Verlander helps the Cardinals.
The Rotation Needs Immediate Help
Adam Wainwright just received an injection in his right arm that will bench him for at least two weeks, but I wouldn't expect a valuable start from him again this season. Sending him out there versus Pittsburgh was borderline insane, so why let's not repeat that. Mike Leake hasn't been good in over two months and he may be hurt as well. There's also the possibility he just ran out of good pitching. Lance Lynn has been dynamite since Leake went bad, but how long can he keep that up? Carlos Martinez hasn't been the ace that the team needed him to be this season (watch out, a critical analysis of El Gallo!). His first innings are nightmares.
Enter Verlander. Imagine Chris Carpenter with even better stuff at an older age, and you get this guy. He has racked up 30 or more starts ten times in his career and is heading towards #11. He produced a 6.6 WAR for the Tigers in 2016 and has added 2.7 wins above replacement this season. Turn him loose against the Cubs, Pirates, and Reds over the last six weeks, and wait for the tears of dread.
The rotation is in dire straits and Verlander would provide an instant relief. This isn't trading for Jake Westbrook or Chuck Finley while sitting under a weak olive branch. This is acquiring a guy who finished second in the Cy Young last season. He has an MVP and Cy Young on his mantle already. Did I mention he really wants to win it all? He's a steak who needs a clean plate.
Verlander Still Has The Heat and Swing and Miss Stuff
The 34 year old can still make them miss at the plate. According to Brooks Baseball, Verlander's fastball velocity still hangs around 95 miles per hour, and he averages 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings according to Baseball Reference. While his heater and curveball are fine weapons, the slider is the pitch that truly rattles the cages of hitters. He is getting a 22 percent whiff rate on his slider the past two months. Verlander doesn't pitch and hope for weak contact. He gets it. The fielding independent pitching mark of 4.18 hangs close to his ERA, so he is what he is on the mound.
The Contract Shows This Is Not a Rental
Verlander has two years left on his deal at a pricey 56 million, but his level of pitching hasn't dropped, so the money fits and doesn't burn the Cardinals for a long stretch. There is a vesting option for 2020 that the Cardinals will more than likely avoid, but you get two more seasons of Verlander dealing in red behind guys like Martinez and Alex Reyes. Sometimes, a pitcher changes teams in his 30's and gets better or holds serve. Verlander could thrive in St. Louis.
Adding Verlander allows Luke Weaver or Jack Flaherty to help the bullpen
While I would love to see Weaver and Flaherty get a few starts, this isn't a dead season anymore. You have to win some ballgames and that means putting in killers-and not test tubes who have no proven experience. Look around and this is the way Cardinals starters begin their trek. Martinez, Wainwright, and Reyes all hit the bullpen first in pennant races before they entered the rotation. With Trevor Rosenthal down for a considerable stretch, Weaver and/or Flaherty could be a lightning rod down there. Verlander helps disperse the talent into a wider radius as well as giving the team a shot in the arm.
Imagine attacking the Cubs in September with Martinez, Verlander, and Lynn. Is it even fair?
There is no reason for the Cardinals to be naive and look too far internally in order to save their 2017 season. If you truly think a run is in order, go get the proper pieces to fight. This is NO TIME TO BE CHEAP either, so if a guy like Verlander makes you better, grab him.
What will it cost? The Tigers would want some young pitching in return, so it may cost a Dakota Hudson/Jack Flaherty as well as Oscar Mercado or Magneuris Sierra. The Cards are getting two years of Verlander, but if they take all the money attached to him, the price shouldn't be too high for a 34 year old pitcher.
With the bats swinging mightily the past six weeks, strengthening the rotation may be the right move. You can never have too much good pitching, and the Cardinals are in need of innings eaters who can be dominant. Eleven of Verlander's 25 starts have went for seven innings or more, and his two 7 IP+ starts in August match the Cardinals. He's also getting strong as 2017 wears on:
Justin Verlander's 2017 ERA by month:
April- 4.60
May- 4.42
June- 4.39
July- 3.82
August- 3.00
The Cardinals and Justin Verlander need each other more than ever, so make it happen, Michael "John Mozeliak" Girsch.
