What if Bryce Harper says no?
Think of a man or woman asking someone out. They've been waiting to do this for quite some time, building up courage, and preparing a sales pitch for a possible date. They fix the hair, wear something nice, put on a smile, and turn on the charm. But when they finally take the plunge and ask, the other person says no. What now?
It happens a lot. Two things or people aren't made to be together. For the St. Louis Cardinals, it hasn't been easy luring free agents to their playground the past 10 years. It's not like the old days where they could wave their baseball heart across the Mississippi River and secure Major League Baseball's brightest talents. It's a different game these days, one much more tactical and precise.
It's not for a lack of effort or due diligence. The Cardinals offered more money for Jason Heyward than the Chicago Cubs, but lacked the World Series-ready roster. They offered the Miami Marlins the best possible package for Giancarlo Stanton only to watch the slugger chose The Big Apple over a sea of red adoration. They offered David Price a huge contract, but the Boston Red Sox sweetened the pot, going to where John Mozeliak and Bill DeWitt Jr. deemed unfit for their franchise.
Heck, the Cardinals didn't even offer hometown kid Max Scherzer years back in what will always go down as Mozeliak's biggest miss.
Time has tested the Cardinals, a team who has won more games than the majority of the league since 2000, plenty of times. Once again, the team is staring down two big free agents and has a decision to make. Ask them out or stay away?
While Manny Machado's Midwest arrival was ruled out immediately with the acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt, Harper remains on the radar as a player who would truly change things in St. Louis.
And please, let's be frank here. Harper is a decade-defining talent. With no offense to Goldschmidt, Harper is the kind of talent who rebrands your franchise and brings in a revenue that OPS and WAR can't even begin to reach. The Cardinals are a highly profitable franchise, but they will need a superstar in case Goldschmidt departs. If not, why not have two?
Harper and Goldschmidt would be like Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid with a better ending. They would rescue this team from third place purgatory in an instant. You don't need a calculator to figure that out, and sorry (not sorry) to the people who keep bringing up Harper's batting average. Grow up, old folks. Just follow the dollar signs and business strategy in today's game. Harper is so money.
But it's not that easy though. Sometimes, a guy doesn't fit for reasons that don't have anything to do with talent. The Cardinals may not be ready to chew and swallow Dexter Fowler's remaining $49.5 million on his five year contract. They are already thinking about slicing and dicing Brett Cecil's remaining cookie dough, so Fowler may preclude them from seriously going after Harper.
However, let's live in a world where the Cardinals did the right thing and offered Harper a contract, and he declined the offer, thus breaking the hearts of Nelly, Andy Cohen, and Tom Berenger in an instant.
What do the Cardinals do then? They aide other areas, add other pieces, and play on. A few more details as you choke down the reality that Harper isn't coming to St. Louis.
1) START processing an offer for Goldschmidt. He may be turning 32 years old next season, but he's still producing at a high level. I am talking about a .900 OPS, 5 WAR, and gold glove caliber defense. You go heavy on a 4-5 year deal that carries him to his age 36-37 season. He plays first base, so the wear and tear of the outfield won't destroy his lower body, and Goldschmidt isn't declining as he gets into his 30's. He isn't going to suddenly stop producing. $28-30 million per season should do it. For the sabermetrics crowd, if he produces another 5.0 WAR season, that's $40 million in value.
2) Fix the bullpen. Add a left-handed reliever. I made a case for Andrew Miller last week, but if you think strikeouts are fascist, go with Zach Britton. Cecil isn't the answer, and while Chasen Shreve is decent, he isn't scaring teams or closing down tough innings. The Cardinals blew an ungodly amount of games last year, so fixing the bullpen would add a few wins. A little order wouldn't hurt. I like a bullpen with defined roles. Start the season with a plan instead of reacting on the fly.
3) Put Fowler and Tyler O'Neill in right field, and turn them loose. Let's see what Fowler has left, because if the Cardinals do not add another starting outfielder, 2019 is his last stand. If he's flat again, the Cardinals will eat that contract and dismiss him. There's no time for rehab project players, no matter how much they smile or cool they are. Fowler was a solid player just two years ago, so bet on that, and put the talented slugger O'Neill right next to him. Old and young keeping each other honest. You can measure the worth of Fowler while seeing what O'Neill has in store.
4) DO NOT LET JEDD GYORKO PLAY THE OUTFIELD! That is all.
5) Don't rush Alex Reyes. While I like the guy as a starter no matter how many injuries he accumulates, Reyes' best worth lies in the rotation. However, there's no need to rush him, especially with Michael Wacha returning. Starters like Adam Wainwright and Carlos Martinez carved out their careers in the bullpen, earning their stripes.
6) Develop a serum for Kolten Wong to take so he doesn't get hurt every 20-30 games. Love the man's defense, but he's only played more than 127 games one time in his career. Wong means the world to the infield defense, and arguably deserved a Gold Glove for his efforts last year. However, being unable to stay on the field has hurt, so the hope for Wong moving forward is getting out there for 140 games. A powerful serum and no Mike Matheny should help.
7) Bet hard on Marcell Ozuna bouncing back to 2017, or close. A fresh shoulder hopefully means the bat will be more lethal and the arm in left field will be ready to impress. He's a sleeper for 2019. If Ozuna is back to what he was doing at the end of 2016 and throughout 2017, the lineup is a different beast. Of course, the "if" is prominent with Ozuna. It's a contract year.
The Cardinals won 88 games last year after a disastrous start and with a flawed roster with underwhelming elements. Fowler was terrible and Ozuna wasn't great, and the bullpen broke down. Everything changed in July when Matheny was fired, but it wasn't enough in the end.
So let's do some math. The Cardinals added Goldschmidt, bringing their last year's total to 93 wins. Let's say the bullpen rights itself and produces a couple wins, which puts you at 95. Mike Shildt and his coaching staff certainly have to account for a couple wins at least, so there's 97 wins. Fowler and Ozuna each add at the very least a win each, so that's 99 wins.
The Cardinals should make a serious play for Harper, but if they don't get him, life will go on, and wins can happen without him.
As they say in the romantic world, there are plenty of fish in the sea, even ones as big as Harper (hint, his name is Nolan).
Thanks for reading,
DLB
