By Tyler Brandt, from Cardsblog.com
Quick game for you: Identify these players based on their slash lines (AVG/OBP/SLG).
Player A: .235/.327/.441
Player B: .246/.322/.461
Player C: .295/.400/.530
Player D: .281/.400/.526
As you may have guessed, two of those players are Dexter Fowler. Player A is Fowler through June 14. Player C is Fowler since June 15. The other two show just how much better Fowler has gotten as the year went on. Player B is Matt Holliday from 2016.
In the Cardinals first 64 games, Fowler was a slightly less powerful version of Holliday from one season ago. He was right around major league average output through that point. The Cardinals paid him to do a lot more than that, but they just had to wait awhile.
Player D is Anthony Rizzo in 2017. Rizzo is once again putting up stellar numbers. His wRC+ indicates that his output is 40 percent above league average. Fowler is just below that mark at 137 wRC+ since June 15. Fowler is playing at a Silver Slugger level in the second half, and it isn't getting much coverage because of his mediocre first half. He is back on a path that puts him close enough to his $82.5 million contract, although not quite all the way there.
Fowler ultimately got to where we expected him to be, but he took the scenic route. His numbers in each of those two time intervals gives us some insights for what to expect going forward.
Contact Quality?
Fowler has had much more success on balls in play in the second half. His BABIP through June 14 was just .263, but since then it is .350. BABIP doesn't stabilize quickly, but usually that large a swing is due to some improvement in contact quality.
Nevertheless, Fowler's batted ball profile is pretty close to where it was during his mediocre start. His ground ball rate has actually gone up in that time. He is hitting more line drives, but not by much. His line drive percentage increased by just two percentage points since June 15. That might be enough to explain 20 points of BABIP, but not even close to 87.
Hard hit balls obviously tend to land for hits more often. But Fowler isn't getting too many more of those, either. His hard hit rate increased by 2.5 percentage points since June 15. Fowler's batted ball profile is only enough to explain half (at most) of his increase in batting average on balls in play. The hard hit increase is significant, but we're also looking at an improvement that is much larger than just one category.
He's Walking Again
As far as I can tell, the two largest increases are in Fowler's BABIP and in his walk rate. Fowler's excellent on-base skills are what earned him the contract in the first place. He walked at a high rate through June 14 (11.8 percent), but he's been even better since then (14.9 percent). That improvement is the difference between the 29th highest walk rate in the majors and the 5th highest.
Cardsblog's Hot Seat or Cold Throne - Cardsblog
Each week, I'll take a look at which Cardinals player, coach, or front office official is on the Hot Seat or the Cold Throne. Now, what does that mean, exactly? To put it simply, you don't want to be on the Hot Seat.
At the heart of Fowler's improvement in walk rate is his improvement in chase rate. Early in the season, Fowler was swinging at a surprisingly high number of balls outside the strike zone. Through April, he was swinging at nearly 30 percent of balls outside the strike zone. By June 14, he had cut that number down to 25.8 percent, but it was still uncharacteristically high for him. Fowler has just two seasons with a higher chase rate than 25.8 percent. Since then, he has swung at just 22.5 percent of balls outside the strike zone, which is a notch better than his career average.
Fowler's ability to get on base and exhibit good base running constitutes the majority of his value. The more he can tap into those skills, the better for the Cardinals. It certainly was strange to see him with just a .327 OBP more than one-third of the way through the season. He was barely above the league average OBP of .325. His second-half improvement has made him a valuable player again.
Cardinals Have Options
What the Cardinals do this offseason probably depends on how they finish this season. They could decide that they don't want any big contracts and try to trade Fowler. Or they could decide that with another year of development, this team will be a playoff team. Fowler's second half improvement actually helps both plans.
If Fowler had continued to be a league-average hitter, then nobody would have traded for him. Even in a salary dump, the Cardinals would have been forced to take a bad deal. If the Cardinals want to put their best team out there next season, Fowler is now a part of their plan.
But they would have had little faith that Fowler would be one of their top three outfielders if had continued to hit like he did through June 14. The Cardinals have a plethora of outfielders on the roster today. Fowler might not have been one of the top three outfielders with a .327 OBP.
Fowler might not fetch a huge haul in a trade, and the Cardinals still might be able to find an upgrade over him. But he won't hurt them like he was when he was just average at getting on base. If the Cardinals offer Fowler in a trade this offseason, he will fetch a prospect with upside, and the Cardinals won't have to pay him. It wouldn't be an entire salary dump like the Mike Leake trade was. Whoever has Fowler can still count on him to be a 2-3 WAR player.
Dexter Fowler isn't a perfect player, but he never was. There was always a chance that Fowler would end up a poor fit in the field. And the team knew that he was unlikely to carry over his .350 BABIP from last year. Similarly, he isn't the guy who is hitting .350 on balls in play since June 15. Fowler's second half just proves that he isn't what we saw in the first half.
The Fowler contract looked like it was going to be terrible for those first 64 games. Fowler was on pace for a season worth 1-1.5 wins above replacement. Now, it looks about the same as it did when he signed the contract. The AAV is a little high for five years, but the Cardinals likely won't take a loss on it until that fifth year. Fowler is once again a high on-base player and a valuable asset. That is exactly what the Cardinals needed Fowler to show in the second half.
The Cardinals fall at Wrigley - Cardsblog
Well, the Cubs happened. The Cardinals walked into Wrigley Field on Friday with a three-game lag in the division race, adding some extra fuel to our midwest rivalry. Unfortunately, after a three-game sweep, the Cards are now six games behind the first-place Cubs. These must-win games for the Cardinals ended 2-8, 1-4, and 3-4.
