I need to start this article with a confession: Scott Rolen was my favorite ballplayer as a kid growing up in the St. Louis area.
I admired his no-nonsense approach on the field and thought he had the strongest infield arm I had ever seen. I emulated his batting stance in my bedroom, wore his jersey till it looked like I was Lou Ferrigno in a size small and can recall the moment I got his autograph like it was yesterday.
(I'm also quite fond of this moment from 2004)
So that might make this next sentence I'm about to type sound pretty confusing.
I'm not totally sure Scott Rolen should be in the National Baseball Hall of Fame.
I subscribe to the idea that it should be the hall of FAME, not the "hall of really good" (Although I do think we should be putting more players in than we have been). More often than not, when I think about his career, Rolen falls into the "hall of really good".
Let's take a look at his case, to see if I can prove myself wrong. We'll start off with some of the things I think are working against him.
Why Scott Rolen isn't a hall of famer
When he was on the field, there was no better anchor at the hot corner. However, over his 17 year career, Rolen only had seven where he played in over 140 games. His injuries took a major toll on his ability to rack up hall-of-fame worthy stats. Most notably, his hit total of 2,077 would fall well short of other slam-dunk third base candidates.
Another stain against Rolen are his numbers in the postseason. In 39 playoff games Rolen slashed an abysmal .220/.301/.376. You might remember, he was slumping so bad in the 2006 playoffs that Tony LaRussa opted to start Scott Spiezio over him. A playoff career isn't the only thing that warrants induction to Cooperstown, but Rolen's numbers in the postseason certainly won't do him any favors.
In fact, most people probably have this as their most notable Scott Rolen postseason moment:
Another point that is sometimes brought up, is Rolen's disposition and the way he parted with the Phillies and Cardinals. Even though I adored him, I think it's fair to say Scott Rolen was not the most "fun-loving" guy in the world. He showed up, put his head down, did his job and went home. His sometimes gruff nature clashed with some people during his time in Philadelphia and St. Louis. Some sportswriters might be carrying that with them when they vote, although I'd argue they have bigger issues with guys like Bonds and Clemens on the ballot.
Now let's get to all the reasons Rolen deserves a legitimate look when it comes to Cooperstown.
Why Scott Rolen is a hall of famer
First off, third base is an extremely underrepresented position in the hall of fame.
According to baseballhall.org, there are only 17 primary third basemen enshrined in Cooperstown. That's the least at any position. My argument is that just because a third baseman isn't Mike Schmidt or George Brett, doesn't mean they're not worthy of induction. It's time to take a closer look at guys like Rolen who were elite in their time, but not quite a Schmidt or Wade Boggs.
Another thing Rolen has going for him is that he was probably the best defensive third baseman of his era.
Other than Adrian Beltre, I can't think of anyone who comes close from 2000 to about 2012. Rolen's eight gold gloves are third all time at the position, behind Brooks Robinson (16) and Mike Schmidt (10). Rolen's eight gold gloves also happen to tie him with current Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, who many fans and analysts have dubbed as a future hall of famer.
The advanced sabermetric stats also back up Rolen.
His total Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of 70.2, which does include his defense in the equation, lands him tenth all-time among third basemen. Eight of those ahead of him are already in the hall of fame. The other one is Adrian Beltre.
Although he never led the league in any notable statistic, Rolen's offensive prowess was well above average.
He averaged 25 home runs, 102 RBI's and 41 doubles over a 162 game season. That's nothing to scoff at. He also holds a career slash line of .281/.364/.490. Not too shabby either, and better than a good deal of current members of the hall of fame. Rolen was the 1997 Rookie of the Year and a 7-time all star as well, which helps his case even more.
Will Rolen ever get to 75%?
So will he ever get there?
Right now on Ryan Thibodaux's ballot tracker, Rolen is polling at 21% among known hall of fame ballots. Remember, he only got 10% of the vote last year. After this round of voting, he'll have another eight years for the writers to vote him in. If he can climb about 10% a year, he may just have a chance.
There is certainly support growing, especially in the sabermetrics community, to get Rolen into Cooperstown.
With a crowded ballot looking like it might get a bit less cluttered with Mariano Rivera, Edgar Martinez, the late Roy Halladay and Mike Mussina possibly getting the call in 2019, Rolen's chances look like they can only improve. Derek Jeter is the only sure-fire first ballot candidate on next year's list, so Rolen might have some room to grow his percentage.
I've tried to stay skeptical on my favorite childhood player's Cooperstown chances, but after looking at all the evidence I've laid out, I'm going to let myself say it. Scott Rolen should be in the hall of fame. That felt good.
