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Looking at the NL Central race as October nears

If the Cardinals play just .500 baseball from this point forward, the Cubs will have to go 13-5 to catch them in the Central... Here's a schedule breakdown.

ST. LOUIS — It's serious now folks.

In just three weeks postseason baseball will be played.

And it certainly looks like the Cardinals will be a part of it in some form or fashion.

But do they have the juice to hold on to the division lead with the Cubs and Brewers on their heels?

At the time of this posting (Wednesday, September 11), the Cardinals lead the Cubs and Brewers by four and five games respectively in the NL Central.

Baseball Reference gives the Cardinals a 96.2% chance at playing in the postseason, and an 84.6% chance of claiming the National League Central crown.

So, it looks good. But as we've seen with this team in 2019, you can never be totally sure of anything.

Each team has 18 games remaining as of this posting on Wednesday.

While each has a handful of division games left, not all schedules are created equal, and it may very well be a race to 90 wins.

Here's what each team's remaining schedule looks like coming down the stretch.

Cardinals 81-63 (As of 9/11/2019)

At Colorado - two games

Home vs. Milwaukee - three games

Home vs. Washington - three games

At Chicago - four games

At Arizona - three games

Home vs. Chicago - three games

Cubs 77-67 (As of 9/11/2019)

At San Diego - two games

Home vs. Pittsburgh - three games

Home vs. Cincinnati - three games

Home vs. St. Louis - four games

At Pittsburgh - three games

At St. Louis - three games

Milwaukee 76-68 (As of 9/11/2019)

At Miami - two games

At St. Louis - three games

Home vs. San Diego - four games

Home vs. Pittsburgh - three games

At Cincinnati - three games

At Colorado - three games

So, the Cardinals have the hardest of these three over the next few weeks.

St. Louis only has two games against teams not currently in the playoff hunt. Chicago has 11 and Milwaukee has 15.

So it's not exactly going to be a walk in the park.

However, the Cardinals have a nice little lead in the Central, which is going to be crucial.

If St. Louis simply goes 9-9 over these last 18 games, they'll finish with 90 wins. To reach 90 wins the Cubs would have to go 13-5 and the Brewers would have to go 14-4.

I don't see either Chicago or Milwaukee going on tears like that, especially with Javier Baez and Christian Yelich out for their respective teams.

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