ST. LOUIS — In reality, Marcell Ozuna and the St. Louis Cardinals parted ways months ago.
When Ozuna signed on Tuesday with the Atlanta Braves for $200,000 more than the qualifying offer he declined from St. Louis back in November, it cemented the negotiations, or lack thereof, between the two parties. And that's fine, but it does leave me wondering one thing: Where is the improvement coming in the Cardinals' offense this season?
You can only hang so many wishes on a tree before the branches start to break off. Living on a prayer in the big leagues is a dangerous endeavor for a Major League team to partake in. Before we get into the bare essentials of this remedy, let's look at the current wish list.
The Cardinals hope Matt Carpenter's disappointing and at times abysmal hitting performance from Sept of 2018 all the way through the entire 2019 season ceases to exist, bringing back the reliable double-hitting and OBP machine.
He is owed $18.5 million in each of the next two seasons. He apologized to the team for his lack of production and I think he'll bounce back in some way, but I'd be lying if I said it was a sure thing.
The Cardinals hope Paul Goldschmidt resumes being the Goldschmidt of old in 2020. He was a pretty good version of that guy in 2019, but this lineup needs him to be a 5.0 WAR guy for at least the next two seasons. That's why they traded for him instead of paying Bryce Harper, who outperformed Goldschmidt last season.
The Cardinals hope Harrison Bader hits A LOT better than .205 in 2020. If words translated to hits, he'd be a .350 hitter with plenty of spark. Right now, he's an offensive liability who makes hard catches in the outfield. That's just not enough for a team that added next to zero payroll in the offseason even with a leaking offense.
The Cardinals hope Paul DeJong's bat doesn't disappear after early May. He had power on occasion, but overall, he took a step back with the bat. He could use a few days off, whether he likes it or not, and there is a guy for that. Speaking of which...
The Cardinals are hoping Tommy Edman's 3.2 fWAR in a utility role expands over an entire season. If the bat is working, this guy needs to play five times a week. Shortstop, second base to spell Kolten Wong, in the outfield, or if Carpenter slumps. Without him, last September looks a lot different-and more depressing at the plate.
The Cardinals are hoping Dexter Fowler can at least do what he did overall in 2019. Asking for a couple wins above replacement from a guy making $16.5 million shouldn't be too much, right?
Fowler doesn't offer much defensively and his bat is relegated to power and a modest OBP. He's the bright light right now in the projected outfield, and that is a scary thought.
The Cardinals are hoping one piece in a gigantic assortment of outfielders is up to the task of fulfilling Ozuna's production. Can Tyler O'Neill stay healthy long enough to realize his potential? Can Lane Thomas get enough time out there to make a dent? Can Dylan Carlson get a real shot to win the starter's job in the spring? Will any of them play over Edman? I like the gamble, as long as it's directed properly and the goal is finding one answer instead of a committee.
They helped fortify the back of the plate by re-signing Matt Wieters today, but for once, an aging Yadier Molina is the least of my worries about this lineup.
There are a lot of questions. The Cardinals didn't just need to replace Ozuna, but improve an offense that included the departed outfielder. Lots of hopes for a team expected to be the favorite for the National League Central division.
Will they win the division and that's it?
They barely did that in 2019 with very good pitching and defense. I'd expect a push from the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and possibly the Cincinnati Reds as well. The Cardinals finished with an OPS ranked 24th in the Majors, and did nothing to improve there. Internal options are intriguing, but acquiring at least one proven bat to fortify one of the question marks would have made a lot of sense.
The pitching staff is an equally dizzying group of question marks. But there are weapons in place there. With the lineup, the outfield right now would rank among the worst in the projected outfield trios in the entire Major Leagues.
Keep your fingers crossed that Bill DeWitt Jr.'s plan-carried out by John Mozeliak, Michael Girsch, and Mike Shildt-is a good one. Per usual in Cardinal Nation, it's a bold one. Banking on unknowns and could-be's to resuscitate a problematic element of the team.