ST. LOUIS — Baseball is full of prospects, both large and small when it comes to capabilities. There are the AAA(A) types who stick around for a few years before flaming out or seeing their ceiling collapse. There are the ones in the middle who do well enough to stick around, make a few adjustments and use video and climb a few steps. And then there are the ones who are destined for greatness, their stock so high that even a virus can't knock it down to size.
Dylan Carlson belongs to the last group. He's special. St. Louis Cardinals fans haven't seen a guy like him since the late Oscar Taveras was cranking home runs out of Busch Stadium in the pouring rain. You could make the argument that due to his meteoric rise that Carlson is closer to an Albert Pujols type, but remember, Pujols came out of nowhere once he landed with the St. Louis camp. Carlson has sat close by or atop the Cardinals prospects since he was drafted 33rd overall in the 2016 MLB draft.
It's easy to see why. The 21-year-old outfielder can play all three outfield spots, switch-hits at the plate, and has the skill set to be a deadly #2 hitter. Carlson has power, speed, and smarts on the field as well as a strong head on top of his shoulders. It's easy to skip over that last part when you are a fan. You'll speed-scroll on his minor league stats page looking for home runs (BINGO!) and OPS (YESSS!), but forget about the intangibles required to make it in this ruthless game.
It took a few minutes at the Winter Warm-up to notice this kid doesn't just give pitchers nightmares, but he slashes well up top, above the arms and legs. He's humble but hungry, aiming to make an outfield spot his own. 2020 is a unique situation for young players such as Carlson. John Mozeliak and Michael Girsch bypassed Marcell Ozuna in free agency and didn't even give one look towards other power bat types like Nicholas Castellanos.
For the first time in years in the outfield, maybe the first since Taveras got everyone's attention, the Cardinals only had eyes for their kids. The young guns in the system. Natural born farmhands with tools that could change the roster.
No one shines brighter than Carlson, and he's making the decision a lot harder for the team next month with his start to camp. As I type this, he has reached base six consecutive times. He came into today's game 5-11 with a double and triple, walking three times to only two strikeouts. He's also made a few nice catches in the outfield and flashes an arm that doesn't deliver bounces to the infield cutoff man. A week into action and Carlson is dazzling folks both local and national.
According to Forbes, he's swinging his way onto the Opening Day roster-and that's the way it should be. If you're rolling your eyes at a small sample size this spring, that's your privilege. Just don't let it slow the enthusiasm for Carlson, because that's been going for quite a bit.
THE RISE
After a slow start in his first few years, Carlson came on strong last season in time split between Springfield and Memphis. He slashed .281/.364/.518 with AA Springfield, adding in 21 home runs, 24 doubles, and six triples. He struck out 98 times, but walked 52 others and stole 18 bases.
Near the end of last season, he joined Memphis and made quick work of PCL in his short stint there. Let's just say he gathered 26 hits in 72 at-bats, with 11 of them going for extra bases. Again, 18 games is a small sample size, but how many times can you do that if Carlson keeps shredding pitching of all kinds and ages.
THE CLOCK
The biggest reason some think the Cardinals will start 2020 off with Carlson in Memphis is the clock. With every young player, they carry a clock that allows the team to get an extra year of control over their status and eventual free agency. If Carlson starts the year on the team, the clock would start and his six years before arbitration would fire up. It's a service time manipulation that the Cubs practiced with Kris Bryant, withholding him from starting with the team at the beginning of the year, so the team gains another entire season of control.
Josh Brown, a former Cards blogger, and good Twitter follow, seems to think the team will just call him up on April 10 to avoid the lost year and keep most everyone happy.
While I respect that idea from Josh, I think this is a good time to throw it out the window. Carlson is wearing the same number this spring as Pujols did back in 2001, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch. He's got a locker between MLB veterans. Maybe the team is realizing that for the first time since "The Machine" came to town, it's time to break the clock and run with the kid.
THE (OPEN) COMPETITION
With Ozuna gone and only Dexter Fowler written in the starting lineup in ink, the Cardinals are entertaining two outfield spots for young (er) players. Harrison Bader, .205 batting average and all, seems to have a lead on the center field spot. He hit a home run this week and everyone went nuts. If it came down to flash and confidence, Bader would lead the entire league. But it's about consistency, and I hope Lane Thomas, another ambitious and power-hitting young outfielder, gives Bader a run for his money.
That leaves Tyler O'Neill and Carlson for left field. Okay, Justin Williams is on this roster and performed well at Memphis, but if he is so good, why hasn't the team given him one look since the Tommy Pham trade? Let's call Williams a sleeper for now, and stick to the kid and Muscles.
O'Neill hit a baseball that is still flying last week, and has two hits in eight at-bats heading into today's game. If the team were going to push him to see what his capability is, now would be a proverbial time to do so. He's only getting older and has the power and outfield versatility to possibly make a cup of coffee turn into a pot at the big league level.
But why isn't he playing more often this month? Why has the team only ever given a real shot when most other options are struggling or hurt (last July)? The reason is O'Neill can't stay healthy and his strikeout totals are eye-opening. There's part of me that wants to see O'Neill swing a wrecking ball through these preconceived notions, but another part wants to see a competition remain exactly that ... an open competition.
THE TIME IS NOW
This team needs all the offense it can get, so time can't be wasted on service time clocks and wish-upon-prayer experiments. The team should go with the best three outfielders ... wait, the best two outfielders and Dexter Fowler, if they want to truly give this team their best shot. Carlson could be the lightning rod that jumpstarts the rest of the lineup. You don't have to hang a hat on 3-4 redemption songs if Carlson is singing a good tune.
He is exactly what the team needs and the league fears: An out of nowhere room wrecker. Outside of the Cincinnati Reds, who had a lot of games to make up in the standings, the division didn't load up much this offseason. Most stood pat and waited for others to make a move. Nobody in the division traded for a Carlson, I can tell you that.
While the Reds paid $64 million for Castellanos, the Cardinals could get similar production from Carlson for a little over half a million dollars.
The idea is simple, ladies and gentlemen. If it's a true competition, let's hope it's not rigged. If Carlson out-swings the rest of the Cardinals outfielders, left field should be his on Opening Day.
Sometimes, a plan can work out. It can be very simple. Do the right thing, St. Louis.
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