ST. LOUIS — When in doubt, run with the kids.
The St. Louis Cardinals have a situation in the outfield heading into the 2020 season. It's more like a problem. With Marcell Ozuna likely heading elsewhere, Harrison Bader's Mendoza line average and Dexter Fowler's limited ability, they need some renewed energy and thump out there.
Due to a few hamstrung contracts, including Fowler's no trade-protected iron clad deal, they don't have a lot of space to work with on the payroll.
According to Baseball Prospectus, the 2020 tab currently sits at $148 million, but there are a couple of arbitration cases pending and Mike Leake's retained $4 million salary, so expect that to balloon close to $165-170 million.
In other words, unless Bill DeWitt Jr. wants to raise the payroll significantly, you can't add much firepower.
I'm sorry, folks, but Anthony Rendon isn't coming to St. Louis. John Mozeliak and Michael Girsch will have to be slick and work around Matt Carpenter's anchor of a salary to improve an offense that finished 22nd in the Major Leagues in OPS and 24th in home runs.
What do you do? Turn to Dylan Carlson.
Before you say, "well he's only 21 years old," look at what Juan Soto is doing in Washington right now. Outside of practicing his salsa moves at homeplate to get into pitcher's heads, Soto is ripping hits in the World Series. He's also 21 years of age, but came into the league two years ago. A young man with a thunder stick.
Last season in time split between Springfield and Memphis (Double-A and Triple-A), Carlson smoked 26 home runs with a .919 OPS. More importantly, he drew 58 walks while striking out 116 times (23%). He has a good eye, can rip the baseball and made quick work of Memphis pitching in the 18 games he played there. According to MLB.com, Carlson's pitch recognition is what makes him extra deadly as a switch hitter.
All signs point to Carlson being an everyday player, so why wait if there is a need?
Please re-route your "start the clock" arguments. Forget that. Go ahead and fire it up. Don't be tentative right now. Other teams didn't let a clock dictate when they were going to get better on the field. If there is an open slot and an obvious replacement doesn't exist, unleash the kid.
I'd like Lane Thomas to challenge Bader in center field, because Bader's defense isn't enough to cover up a troublesome bat, especially if Thomas can perform defensively as well as at the plate. Randy Arozarena can challenge the aging Fowler for time. While the Cards don't seem to have a lot of faith in him, don't sleep on Tyler O'Neill either.
Here's the thing. Carlson will be better than all of them. He's the team's first can't miss prospect since Oscar Taveras. Waiting may be futile, especially if the team needs offense and doesn't have money to acquire proven talent.
Let me pull you in on a little secret: Carpenter will get the season start at third base, so I'm sorry Tommy Edman fans. Fowler will start in right. Mike Shildt and company start the salaries, especially if there's redemption to be had. You can't afford Rendon and a Mookie Betts trade simply isn't happening, so see what the kid has.
If he's not ready, he goes back to Memphis and retools. If he's like Soto, you might change your division-winning roster into a World Series-contending roster. Or at least score you a win or two in the NLCS. Nobody knows until you try.
The comparison doesn't fully fit, but the Nationals let Bryce Harper walk, not raising their initial offer, because they had Soto in the hole. Now, one guy is still playing and the other is not. The Cardinals can be confident in letting Ozuna walk, but they must have a plan.
If you ask me, Dylan Carlson seems more and more like a good plan. Don't let his age fool you. His bat is seasoned and angry.
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