ST. LOUIS — While St. Louis might be pretty bullish on the Cardinals' hopes for a big year in 2021, the annual PECOTA projections think otherwise.
Baseball Prospectus released their annual Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, or PECOTA, projections on Tuesday, and the Cardinals didn't get much love.
The 2021 forecast thinks the Cardinals will finish third in the NL Central, even after the Nolan Arenado trade.
PECOTA takes teams' depth charts and projects the playing time and statistics for every team's players. It then simulates the season and spits out projected win totals and playoff chances for every team.
This year, the PECOTA projections slot the Cardinals behind the Cubs and Brewers in the NL Central, giving St. Louis just a 9% chance to win the division. The Brewers are the favorites at a 55% chance, and the Cubs slot in at a 29% chance. The Reds and Pirates round out the division at a 6% and 0% chance to make the playoffs respectively.
The projections think the Cardinals will finish exactly .500 at 81-81.
Elsewhere, the Dodgers, Mets, Astros, Twins and Yankees are projected to win their respective divisions.
Ahead of the 2020 season, when it was still expected to be a 162-game slate, the Cardinals were also picked to finish third, with the Reds and Cubs ahead of them.