JUPITER, Calif. — The Cardinals passed the halfway point in their spring training schedule over the weekend, leaving a little more than two weeks of games remaining before the opening day of the regular season.
For some players, that time will be spent finetuning their swing, building up their pitch count or merely getting in the work they need to be ready when the team arrives in Los Angeles.
For others, however, the next two weeks will be critical in determining whether they will find themselves on the roster that is playing the Dodgers on March 28 or beginning the season in the minor leagues.
The Cardinals still have 56 players on their camp roster, meaning more than half – 30 – won’t be part of the 26-man squad on opening day. Some of the decisions will be easy for John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations, and manager Oli Marmol, but some of the decisions are not as obvious.
Three of the players penciled in as locks to be on the roster before spring training began had their status change because of injuries in the last week, something the Cardinals hope doesn’t happen again in the time they have remaining in Florida.
Here is a rundown of which players are locks, who are on the bubble, who still have work to do and those not likely to make it to the majors to begin this season:
Locks
Position players (11) – Paul Goldschmidt, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Brandon Crawford, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Ivan Herrera, Matt Carpenter, Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson
Pitchers (9) – Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Steven Matz, Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, Keynan Middleton, Andrew Kittredge, JoJo Romero
There are no surprises in this group, with the only change – other than the injuries – the late addition of Crawford to serve as the backup shortstop to Winn. That signing has proven to be even more important based on the uncertainty of when Edman will be able to play as he recovers from off-season wrist surgery.
On the bubble
Position players (2) – Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar.
Pitchers (6) – Sonny Gray, Riley O’Brien, Zack Thompson, Matthew Liberatore, Ryan Fernandez, Andre Pallante.
Of the two injured regulars, it is more likely that Nootbaar returns first — but whether that will be by opening day is questionable. He is dealing with two non-displaced fractures in his ribs, and when he will be able to play is primarily going to be determined by his pain tolerance. The injuries to both outfielders definitely open up the competition to see who will earn those final two roster spots.
On the pitching side, the injury to Gray — a hamstring strain — will open up one spot if he is not able to return by the end of March. The most likely candidates are either Thompson or Liberatore, although it’s possible both will make it anyway with one of them being used in the rotation – either as a sixth starter or as a fill-in for Gray, with the other shifting to a relief role.
The bullpen competition promised to be the best battle when camp began and that hasn’t changed. O’Brien has been one of the most impressive pitchers this spring and is close to moving to lock status, which would fill one of the three open spots.
As a Rule 5 selection, Fernandez has to be kept on the roster or offered back to the Red Sox, which affects his status. Pallante has been inconsistent, following an up-and-down season in 2023, and finds himself in that battle for probably the last spot among the eight relievers.
Work to do
Position players (3) – Alec Burleson, Michael Siani, Victor Scott II.
Pitchers (4) – John King, Nick Robertson, Drew Rom, Wilking Rodriguez.
How much playing time Scott gets in the next two weeks will be something to watch as the Cardinals try to make their outfield decisions. He has opened eyes this spring — as Winn did a year ago — but like Winn, the Cardinals don’t want to promote Scott to the majors until there is a clear place for him to play on a regular basis.
That will be easier to do if the Cardinals find out that Edman will be out for an extended period. If it is only going to be a couple of weeks, it is more likely the Cardinals will use Carlson in center. Burleson’s future, affected by the signings of Carpenter and Crawford, likely is tied to Noobaar’s recovery. Burleson has had a good spring, and the Cardinals like what Siani offers defensively, but when the final dominoes fall either, or both, could find themselves in Memphis.
If O’Brien wins one of the bullpen spots, there would be two openings remaining, one of which, or both, could be filled by Thompson and/or Liberatore. Otherwise, the next two weeks will determine if those spots go to Fernandez, Pallante, King, Robertson or Rodriguez. Rom could sneak into the mix, but would have to be considered a longshot at this point.
Not likely this year
Position players (14) – Aaron Antonini, Nick Raposo, Wade Stauss, Jimmy Crooks, Luken Baker, Jose Fermin, Thomas Saggese, Pedro Pages, Alfonso Rivas, Jeremy Rivas, Jared Young, Arquimedes, Gamboa, Cesar Prieto, Matt Koperniak.
Pitchers (7) – Tekoah Roby, Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy, Ryan Loutos, Sam Robberse, Kyle Leahy, Connor Thomas.
Most of this group knew coming into camp that their chances of making the opening day roster was unlikely. Fermin probably is the most deserving of a spot, but was squeezed out by the decision to sign Crawford. Pages also has played well enough to convince the Cardinals that he can play in the major leagues too when/if the opportunity arises but is set to be the regular catcher at Memphis.
Saggese has had a great spring and opened a lot of eyes, with the question now deciding which is his best position as he gets regular at-bats and games at Memphis. Baker would appear to be the one player kind of in limbo — he doesn’t really have much left to prove at Triple-A, but there’s a spot for him on the roster in St. Louis.
On the pitching side, everybody in this group just needs to get additional experience, most of them in Triple-A, before they join the group realistically fighting for a spot on the roster.
Follow Rob Rains on Twitter @RobRains
