ST. LOUIS — As John Mozeliak was discussing the Cardinals “reset” for the 2025 season, he admitted the team has not finalized its planned budget for the year, other than expectations that the payroll will be less than it was this season.
Only when he has that information can Mozeliak, beginning his final year as the team’s president of baseball operations, answer the fundamental questions that all of the team’s fans want to know.
Who goes? And who will be back?
They are simple questions. It’s the answers that are more complicated, but let’s try to break it down into categories, with the caveat that a player’s salary alone is not going to be the only factor in who is let go, who is traded or who will be returning.
Until he starts getting texts or calls from executives on other teams, Mozeliak won’t know for certain which players on the Cardinals’ current roster will bring the most interest, and perhaps the greatest return.
He likely knows the players that he would like to trade, if a good deal can be worked out, and which ones he most wants to keep. It is probably a safe assumption that the Cardinals would listen to trade offers for almost anybody on the roster except for shortstop Masyn Winn.
So, here’s a snapshot look at what might happen:
Who is going?
The easy answer here is to start with the players who are eligible for free agency or have a club option on their contract for 2025. This list is headed by Paul Goldschmidt, with Matt Carpenter and Andrew Kittredge the other free agents to be. The Cardinals have options on the contracts of Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Keynan Middleton.
Letting all of those players go, including paying the buyouts on the options, would chop about $50 million off the team’s payroll, a significant savings. Of that group of players, a case can be made that if the budget allows it, they should pick up the $12 million option for Gibson, who has emerged as a leader of the pitching group and a good resource for the team’s younger pitchers, a role somebody needs to fill in 2025.
So letting the others go, and bringing back Gibson, would net a savings of about $38 million.
Who could be traded?
Simply looking at contracts, the top three players in this category are Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras. Arenado has three years left on his contract, Gray two and Contreras three, a combined commitment of about $190 million.
Arenado and Gray also have no-trade status so moving either would require them to sign off on a deal. Mozeliak said he intends to have discussions with both to decide if they want to stay and go through the “reset” or would be open to possible trades.
Contreras, owed $54 million over the next three years, missed a good part of 2024 because of injuries which gave young catchers Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages more playing time than had been expected. If the budget is in decent shape, one option the Cardinals might consider is keeping Contreras and try to put Herrera in a package deal.
The other prime player to watch as trade discussions begin is closer Ryan Helsley, who set the franchise record with 49 saves this season. Helsley is due for a major raise for 2025 from his $3.8 million salary in his final year of arbitration. He can be a free agent after the 2025 season.
The argument can be made that if the Cardinals don’t expect to be in a pennant race next season, would moving Helsley for a bunch of prospects before he hits free agency be the right choice? It is certainly one Mozeliak will be exploring.
The biggest remaining contract on the projected 2025 roster is Miles Mikolas, due to receive $18 million in the final year of his deal. To move him likely would require the Cardinals to package him with a more attractive player, such as Helsley, or agree to eat at least part of that contract. Steven Matz, due $12.5 million in the final year of his contract, falls into that same category.
There is another possibility of trade chips as well, even if moving them would not strictly be a case of trying to reduce payroll. One of the mistakes the Cardinals have seemed to make too often recently on the trade market is holding onto a player longer than they should, then not getting much of a return when that player was eventually traded.
Can Andre Pallante ever have a higher trade value than he will this winter? Hard to say, but maybe not. The same might be said about Alec Burleson or Michael Siani. Those are questions Mozeliak, Chaim Bloom and the rest of the Cardinals’ braintrust must decide as the off-season progresses.
Who stays?
Winn is a no-brainer. It seems likely that Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar are keepers too. Thomas Saggese definitely fits the mold of players the organization will look to build around as it goes forward.
The two biggest questions about the young players concern Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker. The two former first-round draft picks should be at the center of the reset movement, giving them a chance to play every day and develop their talent, not having to constantly be looking over their shoulder to see if they are going to get jerked around again. Victor Scott II falls into that category too.
The major-league performance of all three players, however, leaves room for doubt about how well any, or all, of them will perform even if they are given the chance for regular, uninterrupted playing time. Making the right decision about Gorman, Walker and Scott II’s future could be the most important decision the team has to make this winter.
The top position player in the minors, infielder J.J. Wetherholt, had a great half-season in his first exposure to pro ball and it will be fun to watch his development and see how close he is to the major leagues.
If the Cardinals want this reset to be successful, they have to make a commitment to the young players and stick with them. There will be mistakes. There will be growing pains. But those lessons learned in 2025 should pay valuable dividends in the future.
The Cardinals should commit to the young pitchers too. Michael McGreevy should be in consideration for the starting rotation, and Matthew Liberatore – despite his success in the bullpen – should be a candidate too. Gordon Graceffo deserves a longer look. Quinn Mathews and Tink Hence should get long evaluations in spring training to see how close they are to being major-league ready.
The Cardinals should be able to add to that group of young players and prospects through trades this winter.
Mozeliak has gone on record in the past of saying that he did not believe Cardinals fans would be interested in a rebuild, the way the Astros and Cubs did it in recent years. This shouldn’t be a tear-down, rebuild it situation.
There is enough young talent currently ready or near-ready for the majors that going with the youngsters doesn’t mean the team would be looking at a 100-loss season in 2025.
And really, what does the organization have to lose? There were record numbers of no-shows at Busch Stadium this summer. The team failed to draw 3 million fans for the first time since 2003. Put a good product on the field, even if it is loaded with youngsters, and people will come.
The Cardinals had four seasons with Goldschmidt and Arenado and one of the mystifying realities of the recent stretch of the team’s history is that they did not win a single playoff game with those two potential Hall of Famers on the roster.
The team is sitting at home in October for the second consecutive year. They have won one playoff game – game, not series – over the last five seasons. They have lost nine out of their last 10 postseason games.
This reset could be coming at a good time for the Cardinals and their fans. For 2025, the goal should be simple. Play the kids. It’s time.
Follow Rob Rains on Twitter @RobRains
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