The NFL is back.
And so am I.
After compiling a 124-116-11 record a season ago -- as well as making multiple successful prop bets in the Super Bowl (you're welcome for Donald Trump under six tweets and the coin toss being tails -- I'll once again be making my picks against the spread for each NFL game this season, starting with this weekend's Week 1 matchups.
In addition to my picks, I'm co-hosting a new digital show/sports betting podcast with WKYC's Nick Camino called "Chalk Talk," which you can watch in the video player above or by clicking the link below.
Enough with the pleasantries. Let's get to the picks.
All lines made available via Bovada.
Green Bay Packers (+3) vs. Chicago Bears
Pick: Bears -3
With the Bears being at home, this line seems to indicated oddsmakers believe these two teams are even and I don't think that's the case. The Packers may have star power on their side, but I'll take Chicago to win -- and cover -- behind a big performance by rookie running back David Montgomery.
Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Falcons +3.5
Truth be told, I don't remember a single thing about either of these teams from last year. It's not that I wasn't paying attention -- it's just that neither team did anything particularly memorable, good or bad.
In other words, I don't know what to expect from either the Falcons or the Vikings this season. So I'll take Atlanta and the points and hope that the bad version of Kirk Cousins shows up on Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens (-7) vs. Miami Dolphins
Pick: Ravens -7
Seven points are a lot to lay on the road, especially without having a lot of confidence in Lamar Jackson. But considering the depths the Dolphins have gone to clearly tank this season, I'm not sure there are enough points you could give me to make me take Miami.
Buffalo Bills (+3) vs. New York Jets
Pick: Jets -3
If the Jets are going to get a boost from their bevy of offseason signings, I'm guessing it's going to come sooner rather than later. In a battle between two former first-round picks who enjoyed up and down rookie seasons, I'll take Sam Darnold at home over Josh Allen on the road.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Jaguars +4
On the surface, this line doesn't seem to make any sense when you consider the success the Chiefs enjoyed last season and how disappointing the Jaguars were. But for that reason alone, I'll take Jacksonville +4 because when there's a line that doesn't seem to make sense, that usually means that something is up.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) vs. Carolina Panthers
Pick: Rams -3
This feels like it should be a classic "home dog" pick considering the Rams are traveling from West to East and could be in store for a classic Super Bowl runner up come down. But I'm a big believer in Sean McVay, as well as Los Angeles' overall talent, and will gladly lay only a field goal until I have enough evidence to suggest I should do otherwise.
Tennessee Titans (+6) vs. Cleveland Browns
Pick: Browns -6
I liked this line better when the Browns were only a 5.5-point favorite, but either way, I'm still buying the Cleveland hype. If the Browns are going to live up to my prediction that they're going to go 11-5 and make the AFC Divisional Round this season, they're going to have to start off with a big win at home, which would double as their first season-opening victory since 2004.
Washington Redskins (+10) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Redskins +10
I don't love Washington this year and if forced to make an NFC title pick, I'd probably go with Philadelphia (the Patriots, on principle, would be my Super Bowl pick). Still, 10 points is a massive line for a Week 1 division matchup, so I'll take Washington to at the very least cover.
Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seahawks -9.5
While I may not be willing to lay 10 points against Washington, I'll gladly do so against the Cincinnati Bengals. Give me Russell Wilson, Jadeveon Clowney and the Seahawks in a runaway against a Bengals team that could challenge Miami as the worst in the league.
Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Colts +6.5
Even without Andrew Luck, the Colts roster is talented enough to remain competitive. At the very least, I think Indianapolis should be able to cover a -6.5-point spread against a Chargers team that doesn't possess much of a home-field advantage.
Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals +3
I don't have high hopes for the Cardinals, but I'm not entirely sure they should even be underdogs in this game. I'll take the three points and hope that Kyler Murray enjoys a breakout performance in his NFL debut.
New York Giants (+7.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Giants +7.5
Much like in the Washington-Philadelphia game, I think this is just too many points to lay in a Week 1 division game. While the Cowboys have the better roster, it remains to be seen how big of a role Ezekiel Elliott will have after his lengthy holdout. At the very least, Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard possess the type of talent the Giants will need to keep this game close.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (pick 'em)
Pick: Buccaneers
I like Tampa Bay's offense and have no idea what to expect from Jimmy Garoppolo coming off a torn ACL. Without having to lay any points, I'll take the Bucs to win straight up.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6) vs. New England Patriots
Pick: Steelers +6
The Patriots (on principle) are my Super Bowl pick, but six points are just too much to lay this early in the season against what should be a pretty good Steelers team that should have more urgency to get off to a hot start than New England will have given the current state of the AFC East.
Houston Texans (+7) vs. New Orleans Saints
Pick: Texans +7
While Houston has received plenty of negative publicity due to its recent trades, those moves will affect the Texans' future more than their present. This season, Houston should actually be pretty good and possesses the type of offense that should be able to keep pace with the Saints inside the Superdome.
Denver Broncos (-2) vs. Oakland Raiders
Pick: Broncos -2
Whether or not Antonio Brown plays or doesn't play in this game actually matters very little to me. The Raiders look like a complete dumpster fire and I'll gladly lay less than a field goal against them every chance I get.