The days of T.J. Oshie being a top line St. Louis Blues player must come to an end. It's time, folks. The North Dakota kid swooped into The Lou back in 2008 with otherworldly expectations. Hearing Former General Manager John Davidson talk about him like football people talked about Marshall Faulk wasn't going to have a happy ending. As is the case with the rest of the original Blues core, the expectations for Oshie exceeded the forecast for his talent.
For all the greatness he can show in shootouts, Oshie's overall value as a player has peaked. For all the cool moves he can do on the ice, the defense manhandles him the other nine times out of ten. The old days of Oshie rocking top line forwards, scoring big goals and putting in meaningful minutes are gone. He was never supposed to be a top line guy and spent far too long there. Unless Oshie accepts a lesser role with the Blues, his time here should be finished.
Instead of just pointing fingers, I am going to start producing remedies for the Blues. How useful can someone be if they point out problems without producing solutions? The U.S. government is good enough at that so I am going to give some fixes to the Blues problems and it starts with reassigning or trading T.J. Oshie.
You can't clean out the entire core of Oshie, David Backes, Alex Steen, Alex Pietrangelo and Patrik Berglund but you must eliminate players that don't figure in long term plans, are blocking others or have seen their original promise tap out like a defeated tired MMA fighter curled up in a choke hold in an Octagon. Oshie's best season came in 2013-13 when he played in 79 games, scored 21 goals and was a +19 with 60 points. Oshie's legacy as a Blues and as a hockey player will be his effectiveness in shootouts and his work in Sochi last year.
That's the problem. Oshie is more of a gimmick highlight reel that fades than an all around great player. Here are the numbers I stare at for long stretches of time with Oshie. His playoff stats...
30 games. 5 goals. 4 assists, -12 rating and a single power play goal. This year, he tallied a total of one goal and one assist against the Minnesota Wild in six games while averaging close to 19 minutes of ice time. That won't cut it and it doesn't promote good will moving forward. Oshie's value as a player is touching the ceiling right now. He is in the middle of a five year 20 million dollar contract that needs to be moved. The Boston Bruins were a potential trade partner the past two years but GM Doug Armstrong couldn't pull the trigger. Oshie made 4.1 million this year and will make the same for the next two seasons. A no trade clause kicks in this summer so the Blues shouldn't waste a lot of time shopping him around before he has the right to resist a move.
I understand part of the defense that Oshie's backers will use. He can work the power play(not that effectively anymore actually). He can kill penalties(this is correct). He is a shootout genius(yes but this tool goes away in the postseason). Oshie's overall game has taken a hit lately, and it shows on a lot of shifts.
My naked eye observation is that he isn't as quick as he once was. In hockey, playing the aggressive game that Oshie did for the past seven years can take a toll and over the course of the last few months, Oshie wasn't as quick. When it came to grabbing the puck, carrying it up ice and getting that first step on a defender, Oshie didn't have it. He doesn't use his body as well anymore. He is behind everything and when he is on a line with the hulking yet slow Backes, the overall speed is depressing. Oshie had a very good January, but so did the rest of the club. He is capable of producing solid sections of play but overall he is decreasing as a hockey player.
Who takes Oshie's spot on the top line? The quick answer is Jaden Schwartz. He should be on a line with Vladimir Tarasenko and Paul Stastny for first line minutes this coming October or possibly Jori Lehtera. Schwartz can do everything Oshie can do but better. He is younger, faster, and a smart player on the ice. Schwartz got looks on the first line but deserves to be there full time moving forward. He is a part of the future of this team. While Schwartz's playoff stats are nothing to cheer for, he hasn't gotten 30 games like Oshie has to prove his worth in that department. Schwartz is a key piece in the Blues future. Oshie is not. His value is tapped out and nearly gone.
There will be trade partners. If the Blues can collect some defensive depth or possibly a backup to Jake Allen(when Brian Elliott requests a trade this summer), the team should consider it. There are teams who can plug Oshie into a different system and get more worth. Sure, one could argue that if Dan Bylsma becomes the coach and connects with Oshie, good things can happen but do you want to bet 4.1 million dollars on it? No. The Blues have to find a way to ditch Berglund's 3.7 million this offseason(still the worst contract produced last summer) so it's important to clear as much cap room as possible, especially with Tarasenko needing a new contract inked soon. Do you want to be paying third line mates in Oshie and Berglund a combined 8 million this winter? Not a smart team owner like Tom Stillman.
I like Oshie as a person and a player. He can be fun to watch on the ice and really cleaned up his image and character after a party hound start to his career here in St. Louis. Once Ken Hitchcock came in, Oshie clicked and produced a couple decent seasons. However, change is required in order for new hope to be produced with this Blues team. Backes, Oshie, and Steen can no longer afford to get the most minutes on this team. If you bring them all back and try to convince the public a different result will happen, David Copperfield better be standing next to you with a trick up his sleeve.
Many fans will stone me for saying this, but the real hardcore hockey fans will get it right away. Change isn't pretty and hardly ever comforting at first. Trust me, moving Oshie is a smart play for the St. Louis Blues moving forward. The show is over.
