You can never have enough starting pitching, and now that the Cardinals are scoring runs, it's time to talk about getting some more of it.
With Matt Carpenter on rehab and Yadier Molina and Marcell Ozuna heading out in the coming weeks, it may be best to look at the starting pitching market to provide the Cardinals with an impact that could improve their chances.
This isn't a means to improve their divisional standing. The feeble Central has been winnable all year due to a drop-in performance from the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs. This is a way to move forward in the push for a pennant or World Series chase.
A couple weeks ago, that would have sounded crazy, but here we are talking about a team holding partial ownership of first place with the Cubs before a vital six game homestand opens up on Friday. The Cardinals have won 11 of 13, scoring four or more runs in 15 of those 24 games.
Since the market for a bat is slim to crazy (I don't think the Royals are trading the invaluable Whit Merrifield), starting pitching and bullpen aid is where the juice is. This week, the lowly New York Mets are said to be finally at ease with trading Noah Syndergaard.
Everyone knows who "Thor" is, so let's skip the pleasantries and just get down to what he can and can't do on a baseball field.
The Good
~Syndergaard's lifetime ERA+ of 122 (100 is average) is solid. So is the lifetime xFIP (what a pitcher can do without his defense) of 3.13.
~The man hates walking people. Syndergaard averages 49 walks per season, which is less than three per nine innings.
~While the strikeout rate isn't over ten these days, Syndergaard still puts down nine batters via strikeout per nine innings. I don't know about you, but guys who strike out a lot of guys and don't offer free passes are valuable.
~The contract status. Syndergaard is arbitration eligible next year, which means the team still holds control of his rights until 2022. That's two more seasons after this one at the team's preferred rate, or at worst, a pricey one-year agreement.
~He'll sell a lot of merchandise, because well, he really does look like the God of Thunder.
~Syndergaard's 2.7 fWAR this season shows the strength in an overall disappointing season for the Mets and the young pitcher's preferred results. He's given the Mets WAR totals of 2.8, 5.9, and a 4.2 in seasons where he makes at least 20 starts. That's worth a lot more than the measly $6 million he's taking home this season.
~The man can throw four pitches 90 miles-per-hour. The four-seam and two-seam fastball as well as the slider. He throws a 90-mph changeup at hitters, which isn't even fair. He can be deadly.
~He turns 27 next month.
The Bad
~The man is injury prone and has a hard time making 30 starts or throwing 175-200 innings. He tore his lat muscle in 2017, spent time on the Injured List three times last year, and missed time this season due to a strained hamstring. That doesn't make the man a walking timebomb, but reliability is a problem. He's only made 30 starts in a season and hit 175 innings once in his career. How much do you wager on that?
~Has he peaked? Will he ever get back to that 2016 invincibility? He struck out 216 batters, only allowed 11 home runs, and walked 43. He had a 2.29 FIP! A few injuries later, his stats have fallen back to Earth a bit, so there's a worry about his ceiling. Can he get back there?
The Cost
According to an article in the Minnesota Tribune, the Mets are asking for the moon in exchange for Syndergaard. The Twins were peeking into the door at the pitcher, and the Mets are looking back with big demands. They don't just want one of Minnesota's top prospects; they want two of them: Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloof. One could make an argument for the Mets asking for either Nolan Gorman or Dylan Carlson, but not both. I hope New York stops smoking the good stuff, so we can get back to more logical grounds of negotiating.
The more sensible offer would be a package including a combination of Carlson, Ryan Helsley, and Lane Thomas. You could mix Jake Woodford or Junior Fernandez into that batch as well. You give them an outfielder or two ranked in the top ten in the Cardinals organization, and a talented young arm to boot. After all, you are only getting two years of Syndergaard before he can negotiate a long-term deal.
If the Mets want Carlson and Gorman, I hang up the phone. If they want one of them, along with a lower level prospect or two, I keep listening while staying reluctant.
The Difference
Syndergaard, even with his stat line in 2019, makes the Cardinals a true front runner in the division and a threat for the National League right away. If Miles Mikolas has found his groove (3 solid starts in a row) and Jack Flaherty finds his footing, this rotation will be filthy. Oh, and imagine next season if Carlos Martinez goes back to the rotation.
He's a difference maker and still young, which would make him a guy to sign or extend before his rights expire. I don't think he is declining at the still ripe age of 26. He's giving the Mets a possible 4.0 WAR in what many would call a down year.
The Probability
Low. I'd like a Noah Syndergaard but won't hold my breath waiting. The Mets want a lot, and the Cardinals won't give up a lot, not even for a pitcher like Syndergaard. I can see the Cards going after Trevor Bauer or Madison Bumgarner, since the team holds less control in those player areas. If you can imagine a world where John Mozeliak hands over two Top 5 Cardinals and Top 100 MLB prospects, please give me your sedative to try.
The Cardinals need a guy like Noah Syndergaard, but that desire and the timing puts the Mets in the driver seat here. Is he worth the push? Yes, I think he is. Injury history and durability issues aside, he's still just 26 and has some upside to achieve and collect on.
What say you, Cardinals faithful?
