What's the difference between promise and legitimacy? Right now, Jordan Hicks and Craig Kimbrel.
Hicks entered Sunday's game against the Milwaukee Brewers holding a 4-3 lead with the top of the order looming. In other words, with reigning MVP Christian Yelich set to appear. Three batters later, the Brewers won the game, 5-4.
Hicks finished the first weekend of the 2019 season with one dominant outing and one very bad outing. He struck out two on Friday in a 9-5 win. Today, he couldn't get an out in the ninth.
Now, one will pronounce from atop a building that it's the first week of the season and there were some enlightening spots during the first series ... but the end game answer is the Cardinals lost three of four, struck out too much, and played poor defense at times. In what is setting up to be a tight divisional battle between the Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs and possibly the Pirates and Reds, some assurance in the ninth could be valuable.
Enter Kimbrel, a free agent closer who saved 42 games last season for the Boston Red Sox, and finished with a 13.9 strikeouts/nine innings rate. The 30-year-old closer has 333 career saves, seven All-Star appearances and finished in the top-10 of the Cy Young Award voting five different times. Kimbrel's career FIP is a sickening 1.96 and his WHIP is a stingy 0.920 for his career, which spans 532.2 innings.
While I love Hicks as a bullpen asset, he has little-to-no closing experience. Last season, he walked 45 in 77.2 innings. At times, his strikeout rate wasn't elite like one would expect from a guy with a 104 MPH two-seam fastball and back-breaking off-speed pitches. Technically, he was 6-13 in save opportunities last season. While the future is promising for the 22-year-old phenom, perhaps the ninth inning isn't his yet. Remember I said yet.
Before the season started, manager Mike Shildt admitted most of the opportunities would go through Hicks, but that others may get a shot. I don't like that idea. Closer-by-committee even in the slightest is a dangerous proposition for a playoff-contending baseball team. The Cardinals need certainty there.
Kimbrel brings certainty and prestige. After all, he helped power the Red Sox to the World Series triumph over the Los Angeles Dodgers last fall. He's the kind of guy who changes the makeup of your bullpen.
To be blunt, Kimbrel is NOT Greg Holland.
This is a guy who has fired off eight seasons with at least 31 saves. He's not automatic, but he's pretty close. How much do you pay for that?
The financial aspect of a Kimbrel pursuit is where it gets murky, because the Red Sox didn't push to re-sign, and every other team, including the Brewers, stayed away. He made $13.5 million last year and should get at least $18-20 this year if he signs.
The average annual value isn't as important with Kimbrel as the term. He's 30 with a lot of innings logged on the arm, so the Cardinals wouldn't want to place too many years on an arm like that. While Kimbrel and Holland aren't exactly apples sitting together, I wouldn't classify them as apples and oranges. The Cardinals could be hesitant after signing Holland very late last year and seeing him finish the year elsewhere with a $14 million tag sitting on their desk.
Kimbrel hasn't signed yet, and his second-half numbers last year weren't exactly settling. Kimbrel's earned run average went from 1.77 to 4.57, the WHIP rose from 0.88 to 1.2, and the strikeouts/walk rate went from 3.88 to 2.27. He wasn't exactly sharp in the playoffs either, so there's a reason for concern there.
So, should the Cardinals make a play for Kimbrel? The answer doesn't come easy. On one hand, the legitimacy of Kimbrel is enticing and could change the Cardinals' chances in a heartbeat. Second half decline or not, he gives the Cardinals a lot of close games against these Brewers, Cubs, and Pirates. While Yelich is one of the best in baseball right now, your closer has to be able to get him out.
At the same time, Hicks got behind Yelich, missed location, and simply got beat. This was only round one. Kimbrel's second-half decline last year could be a rugged sign of a reliever climbing over the 30, which could spell more ugly pitching. And if his price tag still goes over three years, veto the idea right away.
It would be wise to reach out to David Meter, Kimbrel's agent, and see where his client sits. Does he want to pitch this season? How much? What's the deal? Is he reading too many comic books? I can't see a single team giving him six years and $100 million. Nope. Maybe you overpay Kimbrel ridiculously on a one or two year deal.
If Kimbrel can be had for three years or less, I'd pull the trigger. Alex Reyes is going to be a starter, as should Carlos Martinez. Hicks can be a wicked setup guy or mix with Andrew Miller in bridge duty. He's still very young. The bullpen could use a weapon.
Here's the thing. You can't afford to drop too many inner division games and close battles. You need a big arm to get big outs in the ninth. Kimbrel has 333 saves, and Hicks has six.
Make your choice, but make it wisely.
