ST. LOUIS — Multiple days in the 70s this month, many mornings near our average high, and things already starting to bloom. All of this certainly must lead to the question: is winter over for us in St. Louis? The short answer is: probably not.
The long answer is a bit more complicated but probably resembles something of the monthly statistics posted below. Every day this month, with the exception of 3, has been above average. Obviously, those 2 days below average represent the snowfall we had, but the rest of the month surely didn't feel like winter.
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In meteorological terms, we define the seasons as 3 month periods, since the day varies each year for every season, due to the earth's position. With six days to go in the month, we currently rank as the 5th warmest winter! This is despite an extremely cold first 3 weeks of January. Overall precipitation is pretty much right on average, and snowfall is the 49th lowest.
But it's hard to officially slam the door on winter at this point. Statistically speaking, we have gotten 4 inches of snow 50 times March 23 and April 1. We've also been under 20 degrees more than 100 times during those dates. Our average temperature has been 40 degrees and under 32 times as well. All of these stretches are cold, snowy, and not resembling an early spring.
But the trend for the next several weeks doesn't favor any of those "wintry" statistics. The Climate Prediction Center favors above-average temperatures the next few weeks, all the way into the first week of March.
But the long-range ensemble computer models suggest that early taste of spring is still full speed ahead. The chance for 1 inch of snow between now and March 9 is less than 10%. Cold air is almost nonexistent through this period, and we are more likely to have one or two opportunities for severe weather in the process. But don't go planting things just yet, despite the early greenery. We are far away from the last freeze date.
