ST. LOUIS — The Weather First team has spoken many times on rain chances in our area over the last few weeks. Some of them came to fruition, while others didn't. It really depends on where you live, doesn't it? But that's the nature of this type of rain.
The pattern is shifting this week, and the law of averages could work in our favor. With so many opportunities, more people should see rain this week, with even a few stronger storms possible Wednesday.
We are finally in between two major, slow-moving storm systems. As a result, we stand to have a consistent directional pattern for storm movement, which should be beneficial for our storm chances. But will we have the ingredients in place, and when does this occur?
That will be something that comes into question as early as Wednesday. Often times you hear us say: "If it's not cloudy, we will have a higher chance for severe weather." That could be the case Wednesday ... and a few other days this week.
It's going to be a matter of where these storms move from upstream and how they hold together. If they don't, and clouds linger, that impacts later storm development. These are the types of key issues we will follow from Wednesday into early next week.
Choosing just one of the most conservative, average forecast models above, there is still a good likelihood that we are going to see multiple areas with a lot more rainfall this week. There is the potential for a LOT more than this through this week as well, depending on where storms develop along a stationary boundary.
This will go a long way in knocking some of these areas out of the extreme drought. But keep in mind, there is a reason we're in this significant drought. Rain has been hard to come by in a widespread fashion as noted by areas above in different stages of drought.
Things are trending up this week, but we remain optimistic at this point, and that's better than we've been able to say in a while.
Click here to view the full Weather First forecast.
5 On Your Side news app
iPhone | Google Play
To watch 5 On Your Side broadcasts or reports 24/7, 5 On Your Side is always streaming on 5+. Download for free on Roku or Amazon Fire TV.