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Predicting fall color in St. Louis

What scientists with the Missouri Botanical Garden hope to see continue weather-wise
Credit: Kent Burgess

GRAY SUMMIT, Mo. — The Shaw Nature Reserve is part of the Missouri Botanical Garden, but not part of the main campus. The reserve is a little over 30 miles west of the main garden. 

Calvin Maginel is an Ecological Resource Scientist for the Shaw Nature Reserve. He said mixed in the 2,400-acre property are glades, woodlands, prairies and wetlands.

Maginel said the reserve typically sees fall color earlier than the botanical garden: "There's so much concrete, there's more of a heat island in the city and so it should be a little cooler out here, which should probably trigger the fall color change to start a little earlier."

Missouri doesn't get the prominent fall colors that the upper midwest and northeast can brag about, but we do usually get a prolonged season of color. 

"We have a lot of asters and goldenrods that start blooming really late," Maginel explained. "We actually have some species of ginseng that bloom all the way during leaf color season."

The first week of September has felt like fall. We've had cool mornings and warm afternoons... two out of three ingredients that Maginel said will make a beautiful fall.

"The biggest thing that we need to get consistent, kind of drawn out fall color is to have cool nights and warm wetter fall days," Maginel said.

It's the lack of water that can lead to drought stress and falls that look like 2023. Maginel said that's because "it makes the leaves kind of dry out quicker and turn brown more as a group."

We are in a dry pattern, so if you want a colorful fall, it's time to start rooting for rain. 

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