ST. LOUIS — An early summer heatwave is giving Missourians a look into what the rest of the summer may hold, the state's climatologist said.
This season is usually marked by heat, but the St. Louis area is already experiencing temperatures much hotter than historically seen, according to Missouri's State Climatologist and Climate Center Director Zack Leasor.
"Temperatures last week and this week are approximately 5 to 10 degrees above normal," Leasor said. "That's kind of been the story for 2024 so far. We had a cold period that was really just a couple of weeks in January and then every other month has been hotter than average or much hotter than average. We had the state's warmest February on record and since then all of our months have been around 4 to 6 degrees above average."
Leasor projects the out-of-the-ordinary heat puts Missouri on pace to experience its third warmest year on record, with the year's hottest season likely to push the state over the edge. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) new report backs up Leasor's findings.
NOAA's latest three-month outlook was released Thursday, where forecasters project upcoming seasonal temperature and precipitation. The projections put Missouri as likely to experience above-average temperatures and average rainfall throughout the summer.
Leasor said he's worried about drought potential this summer if rainfall levels don't keep up with rising heat. An expected La Niña climate pattern in late July and August makes it hard to predict.
La Niña events are characterized by stronger than usual trade winds pushing warm ocean water toward Asia, according to NOAA. Cold water pushed up to the surface during these events pushes the jet stream northward, right through Missouri and St. Louis.
"Historically, La Niña late in the summer has resulted in warmer than average temperatures [in Missouri and St. Louis]," Leasor said. "On the precipitation side of things, there's a little more variability. We've had wet La Niña summers. We've also had dry or drought years during La Niña. Typically, more of that dryness associated with La Niña summers is more toward Missouri's north and west, but we're very close to some historically dry patterns."
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