ST. LOUIS — Seven days into December in St. Louis, and it doesn't feel much like winter. With highs in the 60s Thursday afternoon, it's hard to believe Christmas is less than three weeks away. Many are already asking if we will have a white Christmas this year.
Snowflakes have been hard to find so far this cold season. Over the 30 years from 1991-2020, the probability of a white Christmas in St. Louis is just 17%. Less than 1 in 5 Christmases will have 1 inch or more of snow on the ground at 6 a.m. — the official definition of a white Christmas.
St. Louis' last white Christmas was just a year ago. Not only did light snowfall last year on Christmas Day, but just a few days before, 1.8 inches of snow fell at Lambert St. Louis International Airport. That also provided our coldest day of last winter as the temperature dropped to six below zero late on the 22nd into the 23rd leading up to Christmas.
Measurable snow has fallen in St. Louis on Christmas Day just 16 days since 1892. The most snow that has been measured in St. Louis was way back in 1913 when 9.2 inches fell.
NOAA has an interactive nationwide map of white Christmas chances.
What are the chances we will see snow in time for Christmas this year? Given our expectation, this winter will be warmer than average and the chances look lower than average. The lack of enough cold air to produce snow is the largest problem. The current warmer-than-average temperature trend appears to hold through the days leading up to Christmas.
The model guidance is showing temperatures running about five degrees Fahrenheit above average from Dec. 21 through early on the 28. The average high and low around that time is 42 and 27.
Our only hope could come if a brief surge of colder air arrives just before Christmas. We would then need enough moisture to create snow, which seems exceedingly unlikely based on all the maps we are looking at in the Weather First Weather Center.
The Weather First Team will use "Storm Alert" to refer to life-threatening or major-impact weather conditions in our region. "Weather Alert" refers to nuisance or disruptive weather and is indicated by orange icons and bars in our weather graphics on TV and online.
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