ST. LOUIS — Undecided voters are breaking toward Wesley Bell in the closing days of the 2024 Missouri primary election, according to a new poll of likely Democratic voters in Missouri's First Congressional District.
Bell has expanded his lead over incumbent Congresswoman Cori Bush from a one-point margin in late June to a six-point margin now. According to the survey of 400 likely Democratic primary voters conducted between July 21-24, 48% support Bell, 42% support Bush, and 8% remain undecided. Maria Chappelle-Nadal and Ron Harshaw are polling at lower than one percent each.
Bell was polling at 43% to Bush's 42% one month ago with 11% undecided at the time.
"Cori Bush has a really solid grassroots base that is loyal to her, and that's how she was able to win her upset over Lacy Clay. Those folks aren't swayed," 5 On Your Side Political Analyst Anita Manion said. "What we're seeing is there were a lot of undecideds. They seem to be trending towards Wesley Bell."
The Mellman Group conducted the poll on behalf of the Democratic Majority For Israel, a political action committee aligned with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Camaign finance records filed with the Federal Election Commission show the two groups, combined with the United Democracy Project, have spent $3,706,523 on TV ads and mailers supporting Bell, and another $3,931,931 opposing Bush.
"Because of that funding, Bell has been able to blanket our mailboxes and TVs with ads that seem to be breaking through," Manion said.
The poll also showed Bush's favorability now 10 points underwater, with 43% of voters viewing her job rating as positive, while 53% view her performance as negative.
The poll comes out after groups supporting Bell have highlighted Bush's record of missing votes, or voting against major pieces of legislation like President Joe Biden's bipartisan infrastructure bill.
"Seeing in particular Cori Bush's job approval went down makes me think Wesley Bell's ads have been effective," Manion said.
Bush's team has countered by highlighting some of the wealthy Republican donors who contribute to pro-Israel campaign committees, and claiming that Bell himself is "bankrolled by Republicans."
"It doesn't seem her attacks have been effective," Manion said. "Bell has tried to talk about being a coalition builder and someone who can reach across the aisle. Those attacks might not hit as hard as Cori Bush would like them to."
AIPAC and its affiliated committees spent a combined $15.6 million knocking Rep. Jamaal Bowman out of his seat in New York in the most expensive Democratic primary election ever. Polling conducted by the Mellman Group accurately measured the margin of public support for Bowman's opponent George Latimer, who defeated Bowman by nine points on June 25.
The Missouri primary is Aug. 6. No-excuse early voting is open now.