We are getting closer and closer to the 2020 MLB season. As the weeks fall off the calendar to the commencement of spring training in Jupiter, the Cardinals outfield is still undecided.
The team has resisted the urge all winter to throw their chips on the table for the likes of not only notable players like Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos, but smaller values like Corey Dickerson, leaving the starting lineup looking like a job ad in the newspaper. What would that look like?
"In need of 125-135 starts, .800 OPS, 20 HR, average defense, good clean past highly desirable, call Mo."
With all due respect to the young fleet of contenders, there's something unfit about this offense. A whispering sense of dread. A year after finishing near the bottom of the league in slugging and OPS, the team has sunk $8 million (EIGHT!) into reinforcements, and those came on the pitching side of things.
John Mozeliak and company are hedging their bets on a redemption tour from the lineup as well as the superhero cape lying on the shoulders of the pitching and defense. It's not bold. It's naive.
One would have thought getting dusted by the Washington Nationals in the National League Championship Series would have pushed the message home that in order to beat great pitching, you need big time hitting. Yet, here we are at the end of January with no fixer in sight. With the Cincinnati Reds loading up on sluggers and the Chicago Cubs entertaining a Nolan Arenado trade idea, there has to be an itch in the back of the Cardinals' neck to improve somehow.
Enter Yasiel Puig, a free agent slugger sitting on the open market.
Cardinals fans remember him from playoff match-ups with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and last year when he split time with the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians. Here's a guy who can slug 25 home runs, get on base, and has a cannon in the outfield.
Puig has crushed 20 or more home runs and 20 or more doubles in the past three seasons. He has a career .823 OPS (solid) and 122 OPS+ (100 is league average). Puig offered the Indians/Reds only 1.2 fWAR, but has put up a WAR of 2.8 and 5.5 in the past. At 29 years old, there's still time for the real Puig to stand up.
The defense is where it gets tricky. Puig has thrown out 57 runners in his career, but his range in the outfield is inconsistent and sometimes that strong arm can wield an inaccurate throw. He could be a force one year and a liability the next. In 2017, he saved the Dodgers 18 runs on defense and posted an 11.8 Ultimate Zone Rating. UZR covers a player's arm, range, and tendency to make errors in one stat. In 2019, Puig cost the two teams zero runs but finished with a -3.6 UZR.
Which leads me to the bigger reason Puig isn't signed yet. His attitude and combustive personality isn't exactly appealing to the majority of Major League teams.
He's cut from the old school of baseball players, the ones who brawled first and spoke later. You can bring up "Puig Brawls" on Youtube and settle in for at least two glasses of whiskey. He is fiery in all the good and bad ways. I can remember Adrian Gonzalez having to get a hold of him several times with the Dodgers and last year, it took around five Reds to keep him from going after another player. With Puig, the fuse is always lit, set to burn all the way down to the wick right before the explosion.
Here's why I think the Cardinals could help that. Two words: Yadier Molina. If there is anyone in the league who can tame this beast, it's Molina. Players respect him and will listen to him. There will be a time when Molina will have to throw his arm around Puig and get him in line, but he can do it. The Dodgers, Reds, and Indians are good ball clubs, but they didn't have a Molina calming mechanism at their disposal. Puig is Cuban, which means the language barrier doesn't exist with him and Molina. If I know the revered Cardinals catcher, he likes these rehab projects. They keep him young.
Here's another thing about Puig. He'll stay on the field. He's played in at least 125 games in each of the last three seasons, 148 or more in two of them. He can be a weapon that can play in either left or right field, and doesn't necessarily have to start every single game-but he is capable of doing so.
Cost shouldn't be a problem. Puig should come in cheaper than Ozuna and not with the demand of multiple years like Castellanos. Puig may produce close to the same result. It shouldn't take more than a one year deal. Two at the most.
Puig's options are dwindling if he wants to be in camp on time and get paid properly. He's made between $9-10 million in each of the past two years, his last under arbitration. He's a free agent, but shouldn't command too much. At 29 years old, there's still a lot of steam left in his arm and legs.
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Here's another thing about Puig. This Cardinals team can use some fire in the hole. Some unique energy. Someone who may not be able to be contained at times, but gives your team a spark. Puig is a proven bat, having produced for three teams across the league in his six years of service. Puig's bat is much more trustworthy for a problematic offense than a group of players without much experience or guarantee.
He was able to repeat his performance, which puts him ahead of Harrison Bader. He stays on the field, which puts him ahead of Tyler O'Neill. He doesn't have the crowned rookie status of Dylan Carlson, who will most likely start the year in Memphis, where he only got a small percentage of at-bats last summer. Lane Thomas should challenge for center field at-bats, but is still largely an unknown. Tommy Edman may be better off on the infield getting at-bats. Dexter Fowler can only hope to have a year like Puig.
Like his personality or not, Puig is something the Cardinals don't have. Someone who can hit and has done it before. With a guy like Yadier Molina in place to guide him, and an open spot to prove his mettle once again, the Cardinals wouldn't be hurting themselves by taking a chance on him.
If it doesn't work, he doesn't come back. But what if Puig puts up a 2.5 WAR, 25 home runs, throws out 8 runners, and assembles an .800 OPS while playing 135 games? What if he outproduces Ozuna?
Confession: I don't expect the team to go after this guy. I'm just telling you they should consider it.
The season is sneaking up on us, ladies and gentlemen. It's going to be here soon enough. Are you comfortable with this offense? Can they supply the pitching with enough run support? The Cardinals have said no to everybody else, but should consider Puig. See where his price is at (they can afford it), and give him an opportunity to shine in the right spot.
At one time, back in December, I was almost on board with letting the kids play. It almost made sense. I'm not there anymore. I want something proven.
Yasiel Puig is proven.